Brandon Shively’s 25* NFL Playoffs Game of the Year--Sunday
NY Giants vs. Green Bay,
01/08/2017 16:40 EDT,
Score: 13 - 38
Point Spread: +4½/-105 NY Giants
Play on New York Giants Sunday, 4:40 PM EST
Aaron Rodgers at home in December is unbeatable practically. But this is January and it’s the Playoffs. The Packers are 3-2 SU but only 2-3 ATS as a home favorite in the Playoffs since 2008. Both of those straight up losses came to the New York GIants in 2008 and 2012. Eli Manning and his troops have been here before. That relieves some pressure. Sure, it’s going to be cold but the Giants play in cold weather. They played the Packers in cold weather in both 2008 and 2012. How have the Giants done overall in the Playoffs as a road dog other than the two Packers SU wins and covers? They are 5-0 SU and ATS their last 5 and 7-0 ATS their L7 dating to 2003.
The last 5 times the Giants have been a road dog in the Playoffs (2007-08 season), their opponents haven’t scored more than 20 points. (The Packers scored 20 both meetings). The Giants have a very improved defense this year. They only gave up more than 24 points once this season. Their pass defense ranks 7th at only 6.8 yards allowed per pass attempt. Green Bay’s pass defense on the other hand, ranks dead last in the NFL at 8.1 yards per pass attempt. The Giants rank 2nd in the NFL in fewest rushing yards per carry at 2.6 while Green Bay allows 4 yards per carry.
Both teams have made 25 take aways each on the season. The PAckers do have an edge with only 17 giveaways while the Giants have 27. That’s mostly due to interceptions by Manning. The problem for Green Bay here is they don’t have the talent nor the depth in the secondary to challenge Manning. Manning’s average of 264 passing yards a game career in 6 games ranks 4th highest among all the teams he has faced in his career. A career QB rating of 96.3 in the month of January is better than any other month of the NFL.
Rodgers is on a roll there is no denying that, but he had his worst game of the season this year vs the Giants with a QB rating of 65.
Rookie Paul Perkins is averaging 4.8 yards a carry his last 3 games. Rashad Jennings is back healthy and provides the Giants enough of a running game to keep the Packers defense play true. ODB has finally quieted down and is just playing football. Victor Cruz is being more involved in the offense while the rookie Sterling Shepard has caught a touchdown pass in 6 of his last 9 games.
The Packers have given up an average of 25 ppg their last 3 games. The Bears, Vikings, and Lions offenses are not nearly as talented, deep, or experienced as the Giants. While the G-Men's offense is only averaging 19.4 ppg, they have the playmakers. They beat the Cowboys twice.
All due respect to Aaron Rodgers, but this is too many points to lay here as he can only do so much. He can’t play defense and the Giants will be able to match the Packers and possibly outmatch them.
The Packers have scored 30+ points in 3 consecutive games. NFL home favorites in the Playoffs coming in off 3+ games having scored 30 or more points are 2-6 ATS (25%) since 2002.
The Giants are playing with revenge from a loss earlier this year vs the Packers. NFL road dogs playing with revenge in the Playoffs cover at a long term 54.5% rate. The Packers are only 4-8 ATS in the Playoffs facing a team with revenge. (2012 vs the Giants when Giants won 37-20). NFL home favorites coming in off 4+ consecutive wins are 6-18 ATS (25%) since 2002, including 0-5 ATS when a favorite of 6 points or fewer.