10* Under Mets/Phillies (7:05 ET): Even after a 5-4 win last night here in Philly, the Mets’ postseason odds aren’t looking too good. Making matters worse is that Jacob deGrom was forced to exit early last night due to a hamstring spasm. All things considered, the Mets should feel pretty fortunate that they won Wednesday. deGrom gave up four runs in two innings, which put them in a serious hole. But they were able to rally for five of their own, putting them 2.5 games back of the Phillies for the final NL playoff berth.

For the Phillies, last night was a blown opportunity. Being up 4-0 early on deGrom is an advantage few teams get to enjoy. It marked the 5th consecutive game that the Phils failed to score more than four runs. If there is a “silver lining,” it’s not just that they have the 2.5 game edge over the Mets in the standings, but also Aaron Nola will be on the mound Thursday. Nola was originally going to start yesterday, but was bumped back a day to allow Zack Wheeler to make his 2020 debut. Nola is the staff ace as he’s posted a 2.44 ERA and 0.888 WHIP in nine starts this year. He is 8-2 w/ a 3.00 ERA in 15 career starts vs. the Mets.

Even though the Mets are 0-4 as a road dog of +125 to +175 and the Phillies are 10-1 as home favorites of -125 to -175, I’m not going to back the home team here, even w/ Nola starting. This is for two reasons. One is that their every day lineup has been decimated by injuries (explains the lack of scoring recently). Also the Mets have Seth Lugo starting. Lugo has solid numbers (2.65 ERA overall, 0.96 WHIP on the road) and the Under is 3-0-1 in his four starts. Tonight’s rubber match should belong to the starting pitchers. 10* Under Mets/Phillies