10* Boston (7:05 ET): Tip your cap to Miami for still being unbeaten in regulation this postseason. They are now 9-1 SU/ATS overall since the playoffs began. The only loss came in OT when they were looking to sweep Milwaukee and blew a late lead. Ironically, they needed overtime to rally and pick up the Game 1 victory over the Celtics. The Heat definitely has me “scratching my head” a bit as they are overachieving in my eyes. Game 1 marked the team’s NINTH OT win this season, easily the most in the league. I feel they’ve been quite fortunate throughout the 2019-20 campaign.

Despite losing Game 1, I don’t think Boston should necessarily be hanging its collective head. By his own admission, Kemba Walker was “terrible” as he needed 19 shots just to get 19 points (was 1 of 9 on 3PA). It was Walker’s third straight under 20 points and 32.0% shooting. Yet the Celtics still only lost by three in overtime and actually led most of the way. They were up double digits entering the 4Q! And Miami shot much better than they did, especially from three-point range.

This is the first time Boston has trailed in a series this postseason. They swept the 76ers in the first round, then won the first two games against Toronto. Three of the Celtics’ four losses this postseason have either come at the buzzer or in overtime. The four losses are by a total of 14 points. They pretty clearly were a better team than Toronto (despite needing seven games) and my power ratings have them as the better team here. Since August 6th, they are a perfect 6-0 ATS if they failed to cover in the previous game. Lay the short number in a pretty obvious bounce back situation. 10* Boston