8* Boise State (9:00 ET): Boise State is flat out rolling right now. It’s 12 straight wins for the Broncos following a season-opening loss at Houston, for which there should be no shame at all (Houston is a top 10 team). All but one of those 12 victories has been by double digits and when I took them on New Year’s Eve (at San Jose State), they won 106-54 as a 22-point favorite! The Broncos are one of a dwindling number of teams in the country that still has a perfect conference record and I see things staying that way tonight against overmatched Fresno State.

The Bulldogs come in at just 5-5 SU on the year and the road has been rather unkind to them. They’ve lost all four previous road games (by an average of 18.5 PPG) and none of them have been close. Last weekend saw FSU get swept in Reno, losing by 14 and 16 in two games vs. Nevada. That’s actually better than they did earlier in the year at Colorado State when they dropped two in a row by a combined 44 points. They’re now at Boise for a pair this week (next game is Friday) and it’s difficult to see how a team that’s 1-5 ATS vs. .500 or better teams competes here.

Furthermore, four of Fresno State’s five wins this season have come against either non-DI teams (William Jessup and Fresno Pacific) or San Jose State (worst team in the MWC). They are 0-4 ATS as underdogs. They have shot just 38.1% in those four previous road losses and are making only 24% of their three-point attempts. They are also a horrible free throw shooting team. Boise State is 28th in the country in scoring (81.8 PPG) and their average margin of victory in MWC play so far is an eye-popping 23.4 PPG. They allow only 58.4 PPG at home. 8* Boise State