10* Golden State (10:05 ET): I didn’t have many positive things to say about the Warriors when I faded them yesterday. Sure enough, they ended up losing outright (here at home) to the Wizards 110-107 as 4.5-point chalk. So why would I turn around 24 hours later and lay an even bigger number with the Dubs? Well, look at who they’re hosting. Houston also played last night and was a double digit loser to the Clippers (126-109). That was the Rockets’ 28th loss in their last 31 games. They’ve covered the spread only seven times during that stretch.

In yday’s analysis, I mentioned that GS isn’t favored all that often. But the result against the Wizards aside, the Warriors usually win when laying points. They were 13-5 SU in the chalk role going into Friday. Now they have lost 8 of the last 10 games overall as they are fighting just to hold on to a spot in the “play-in” round of the postseason. Their lead over the 11th place Pelicans has dwindled to a single game. If Steph Curry and company don’t get this ship righted, then they could be the “odd team out.”

Just last month, the Warriors beat the Rockets by 14 in Houston. They closed as 11-point favorites for the game, so this spread looks like a bargain by comparison. The Rockets were outscored 41-10 in the second quarter last night, which tells you all you need to know about what they are going through. Meanwhile, the Warriors were winning their game with less than 10 seconds remaining. I may not have trusted the Dubs last night, but I do here. 10* Golden State