8* Over Heat/Trail Blazers (10:05 ET): Portland’s game last night (w/ Detroit), a 118-103 win, was the fourth Under for the team in its last five games. But the Blazers remain a very suspect team defensively (29th in number of points per possession allowed) and here they are matched up with a Miami team that’s gone Over in each of its last four games. Granted, not all of those Heat totals were very high. But neither in this one, especially if you look at it from Portland’s perspective. Number is too low. Go Over tonight.

Miami has won five of six to move into the middle of the playoff pack in the Eastern Conference. Right now they are in 6th place, just one-half game behind Charlotte and Atlanta, who are tied for fourth. So this is an important game. When they hosted Portland last month, the Heat lost by a score of 125-122. That game saw them shoot 56% from the field and still LOSE. The teams combined to go 36 of 80 from three-point range, which they probably won’t do again. But remember we don’t need the game to be nearly that high-scoring to still cash this Over ticket.

Portland is 6th in the Western Conference, but at 10 games above .500 they have a much better record than the Heat. Enes Kanter set a record with 30 rebounds in last night’s win, a nice “step up” performance with Jusuf Nurkic sidelined (Nurkic is expected to play tonight). But maybe the real key was holding the Pistons to 9 of 26 shooting from behind the arc, a percentage the Heat should easily eclipse tonight. With the Over 12-5 when Portland is in the second night of a back to back, this number just looks too low. 8* Over Heat/Trail Blazers