8* Boston College (12:00 ET): In its first game w/o starting QB Phil Jurkovic (could be out the rest of the season), Boston College put up 28 points last week even with backup Denis Grosel completing only 5 of 13 passes for 34 yards. The running game - which saw three different backs find the endzone - was ultra-effective in going for 187 yards on 35 carries. Of course, it also helps to have a defense which is sixth nationally, allowing only 10.3 PPG. It’s because of that defense and this game being in Chestnut Hill that I feel we have a “false favorite” on our hands with Missouri. Take the points in this one.

Boston College is looking to complete the non-conference portion of its schedule a perfect 4-0 straight up. It’s not been a challenging schedule to this point as the team has been favored by double digits in every game and twice by 40 or more. But the program has a solid reputation as an underdog, pulling 13 outright upsets the last five seasons and going 5-1 ATS its last six times in the role. But that’s only half the equation here. You’ve also got the fact that Missouri has been a lousy road team through the years, going 7-21 ATS L28 outside of Columbia. That includes 1-6 when laying points, which they are here. The Tigers are 0-3 ATS overall in 2021 including a 35-28 outright loss as a dog at Kentucky (7th straight year losing the SEC opener).

The Eagles have a massive edge on the defensive side of the ball in this game. While they’ve allowed just 31 points in three games (28 of those against UMass), Mizzou’s defense is last among SEC teams in giving up 455.7 YPG. A lot of that has to do with the loss to UK, however the Tigers did give up nearly 300 yards rushing to SE Missouri State, a FCS school. When Grosel filled-in against UMass, he completed 11 of 14 passes for 199 yards. So look for him to put up better numbers than last week. I agree with my power ratings that BC should be favored. 8* Boston College