(NBA) Dallas vs. Golden State, 05/18/2022 9:00 PM, Score: 87 - 112
Total: 214.50 | -110.00 Under
Result: Win
10* Under Mavs/Warriors (9:00 ET): Dallas stunned the basketball world with its 33-point Game 7 victory at Phoenix Sunday night. They allowed just 27 first half points and 50 through three quarters! So while this team has been notably better at home on the defensive end, it would be foolish to discount what they can do on the road. Golden State is also a team that’s underrated defensively. They allow only 103.1 PPG at home (2nd lowest, only trailing Dallas) and also finished the regular season #1 in defensive efficiency. Something else that must be considered when handicapping this series is that Dallas plays at an incredibly slow pace (last in tempo during the regular season). I’m on the Under in Game 1.

Over its last five games vs. Memphis, the Warriors only averaged 109.8 points and that was with the 142-point explosion in Game 3. Dallas will easily be the best defensive team that the Warriors have faced this postseason as the Nuggets and Grizzlies ended up 15th and 12th in scoring defense. The Mavs allowed just 96.2 PPG the L5 games and 101.9 for the entire playoffs. This despite facing the team that tied for the regular season lead in offensive efficiency (Utah) and a top five scoring offense (Phoenix). Back to tempo, Dallas is playing even slower than they did in the regular season. Obviously, they’re going to look to slow these games vs. the Warriors to a “snail’s pace.”

While I expect the Dallas defense to shine tonight, do not look for the team to shoot 56.8% from the field again as it did in Game 7 vs. Phoenix. In three of its last four home games, Golden State has allowed fewer than 100 points. Luka Doncic is coming off a monster series (32.6 PPG), but I do not expect him to find that same kind of success here vs. the Warriors. Two of the four regular season matchups between these teams were low-scoring (208 or less pts scored) while the other two were high-scoring (228+). I expect something along the lines of the former. 10* Under Mavs/Warriors