(EPL) Burnley vs. Aston Villa, 05/19/2022 3:00 PM, Score: 1 - 1
Total: 2.50 | -110.00 Under
Result: Win
9* Under Burnley/Aston Villa (3:00 ET): So this one is huge for Burnley as they try and escape the drop zone (bottom three) in the Premier League. All it would take is a draw to draw level with Leeds United at 35 points and Burnley would be way ahead on goal differential, thus avoiding relegation to the Championship. But with one more matchday to go after this (Sunday) where they will face a resurgent Newcastle United, a win would be quite nice for the Clarets. Problem is, even against what is probably going to be an unmotivated Aston Villa club, I can’t really trust them on the road.

Burnley turned in a game effort last weekend against Tottenham Hotspur, a top four side trying to play its way into next season’s Champions League. But they came up short, 1-0, the lone goal being a Harry Kane penalty in first half stoppage time. It marked the fifth time in the last seven matches that the Clarets scored 1 or 0 goals and they haven’t scored more than two in any fixture since a 3-2 win over Everton back on April 6th. Prior to that win, the Clarets had been blanked in four consecutive matches. So you can see why they are in the position they are in. Only last place Norwich City has scored fewer times than Burnley this season in EPL action.

Aston Villa no longer needs to worry about the threat of relegation, but they have suffered 18 defeats this campaign, which is two more than Burnley has and tied for fourth most in the entire English top flight. Villa is coming off a tough 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace (where I again had the Under) and both goals scored came in the final half hour. Villa gave up the equalizer in the 81st minute. It was less than two weeks ago they beat Burnley 3-1, but I can’t see Villa scoring three times again here and Burnley’s lone goal in that reverse came in stoppage time. 9* Under Burnley/Aston Villa