*3 Star NBA Friday FAST CASH* The New Orleans Pelicans are coming off a big effort on the road against the Golden State Warriors. New Orleans led for much of the game before Golden State made a run late and won that contest.

New Orleans is 6-18 straight up on the road this year. The Pelicans clearly have talent, but they haven't been consistent at all.

Portland has one of the best home court advantages in the NBA. The Blazers are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 home games. Portland is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

The Blazers have been excellent at home in recent weeks, and they have plenty of reason to be up for this game. Remember who swept them out of the playoffs last year? Yes, it was the New Orleans Pelicans.

New Orleans is coming off a discouraging loss where they had a chance to beat Golden State. Portland is coming off an easy win over the Cavs. I'll lay the short number here.

Take Portland.

*4 Star Play Under* Oregon is still a team that wants to slow things down. The Ducks have played arguably the two fastest teams in the Pac 12 in UCLA and USC in their last two games, and their higher scoring games in those contests have given the under more value here.

Arizona ranks 205th in the nation in tempo. Despite playing the 34th toughest slate of offenses according to KenPom, the Wildcats rank 22nd in the nation in defensive efficiency. Oregon will move slowly and they aren't likely to get many second chances on offense.

The Arizona offense ranks in the 75th percentile in offensive efficiency against man defenses according to Synergy Sports. They rank in only the 42nd percentile against zone defenses. They'll see a lot of zone from Oregon here.

Both teams rank in the top 12% of teams in the country in transition defense, so there aren't likely to be many easy scoring chances in transition.

Look for a low scoring contest here.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Over* I very rarely play overs this high, but I feel it is warranted here. Eastern Kentucky ranks second in the nation in tempo. The Colonels are averaging slightly more than 80 possessions per game. They face a UT Martin team here who ranks 55th in the nation in tempo. Their new coach wants them pushing the pace as well, so I wouldn't expect them to stall things out here.

The floor is very high for scoring in Eastern Kentucky games. The lowest total in any of their last seven games was 163 points. They had a 182 point game and a 202 point game in that time span.

What about UT Martin. They haven't played anyone who goes even close to as fast as Eastern Kentucky, but they have managed to give up 92 points or more in 4 of their last 6 games. UT Martin ranks 336th in defensive efficiency despite playing 227th toughest slate of offenses thus far. Eastern Kentucky has faced the 70th toughest list of defenses, so I believe their offense is a bit undervalued.

A strength for the UT Martin offense is offensive rebounds and that is a weakness for Eastern Kentucky.

The spread here sits at six, which is a fouling margin and that could certainly push this over.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Over* The Georgia Southern Eagles are a totally different team than they were last year or the year before. Georgia Southern ranked 155th in tempo two years ago. They ranked 134th in tempo last year. They rank sixth in the nation in tempo this year. They are shooting the ball almost 3 seconds quicker on an average possession now than they did last year in Sun Belt action.

Troy has gotten worse on defense. The Trojans rank 296th in defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Trojans are slightly better on offense this year.

The strength of both of these offenses is being efficient in transition, and that should lead to a bunch of points here.

These two teams have a history of high scoring games against each other- and that was before Georgia Southern's move to a much faster tempo. In the last five meetings between these two, there hasn't been a single matchup that finished short of 159 points. With the faster pace, I like the over.

Take the over.

*3 Star NBA System Play SMASHER* The Brooklyn Nets have been sneaky good this year. That is especially true in recent weeks. They are 14-5 in their last 19.

Houston isn't the same team without Clint Capela. They will badly miss his defense. Chris Paul is out. Eric Gordon is questionable. James Harden is amazing, but he doesn't have much help right now.

Brooklyn is a very scrappy team that generally keeps nearly every game close.

The Nets are cashing at a 65% clip ATS on the road since 2015 when they getting less than 50% of the bets. The public bet percentage on them here is only 19%!

A strong system backs this one. Eastern Conference teams getting 3.5 points or more on the road against a Western Conference team are hitting at a 63% ATS rate since 2015 when the Western Conference team has an ATS cover rate of 50% or higher on the year (52% for Houston).

I'll fade the public and back the Nets here.

Take Brooklyn.

*3 Star Play Under* Kennesaw State has one of the worst offenses in the country. The Owls rank dead last in Ken Pomeroy's effective field goal percentage. That's out of 353 teams. This offense is shooting a miserable 37.7% on two point field goals. Kennesaw State has been held to 53 points or less seven times this year.

Liberty plays at the single slowest pace of any team Kennesaw State has played so far this year. The Flames are good on offense, and they are likely to be pretty efficient here. Liberty is projected to coast to a win though, and they have shown they will grind the pace down to a halt with a big lead. Liberty is using nearly 22 seconds of the shot clock on average in their Atlantic Sun games (they have won each by at least 16 points).

Kennesaw State typically plays pretty slowly as well, so I expect a very slow tempo here and I think this total is a few points too high.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* The last time these two teams met Virginia Tech won at Virginia by a count of 61-60 in overtime. That game was played to a pace of 61 possessions even with an overtime, so the tempo was extremely slow.

Virginia Tech is playing much differently this year. The Hokies used up 16.1 seconds of the shot clock on average last year. They are using up 18.1 seconds of the shot clock on average this year. The Hokies have slowed down dramatically. They are using 19.0 seconds of the clock in ACC play.

Virginia ranks 353rd out of 353 in the country in tempo. The Cavs are using 21.0 seconds of the shot clock on average in ACC play. They are second in the nation in defensive efficiency. Virginia has held 10 of their 15 opponents this year to 52 points or fewer.

Virginia Tech has improved in a big way on defense. The Hokies ranked 156th in defensive efficiency two years ago. They ranked 70th last year. They rank 19th so far this year.

Here's an under system for Virginia- When the total is 117 points or higher and they are either underdogs or favored by 11 points or less... the under is a whopping 40-12 (77%) since 2010. The system is 11-1 in the last 12 as well.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* Loyola Chicago's defense has been great throughout the course of the season, and they are even better defensively on their home floor. The Ramblers control tempo with the best of them, and Valparaiso isn't wanting to speed things up either. Valpo ranks 293rd in tempo out of 353 in country. Loyola ranks 320th.

Loyola is second in the nation in defensive rebounding percentage. They are 7th in the nation in defending without fouling. There aren't many easy points against this Ramblers defense. They have given up 49 points or less in four of their last seven contests overall.

Valpo is great at defending without fouling as well. The Crusaders have seen 4 of their last 5 games against Division I teams finish with 126 points or fewer.

Take the under.

*4 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles rank 350th out of 353 teams in the nation in tempo. Eastern Michigan uses the Syracuse matchup zone to slow down the game. The Eagles have given a lot of teams in the MAC trouble with this zone defense. Last year, Akron scored only 49 and 58 points in their two games against Eastern Michigan.

The Akron Zips defense was questionable last year, but they are very good on defense this season. Akron was 300th in the nation in effective field goal percentage defense last year. They are 50th this year.

Both games between these two last year stayed easily under this total, and Akron is playing much higher quality defense now.

Akron ranks 309th in tempo as well, so they aren't likely to be pushing the pace here.

Take the under.

*3 Star NBA Late Night MONEYMAKER* The Portland Blazers have been playing good basketball of late. Portland has shown they have a high upside. They have had one of the best backcourts in the NBA the last few years in Lillard and McCollum. The team has gotten much better now though since Nurkic has become a very dependable big man in the middle.

Portland put up a good fight last night in Denver. I ran a query to see how teams have done after a game in Denver- they have done surprisingly well.

A team who is on a road trip after playing a road game in Denver who also fits the following-

-Their opponent has an ATS win percentage of higher than 50% on the year (Kings are at 59%)

-The public bet percentage on this team is 51% or less (34% of the bets are on Portland here).

This system is 57-33 ATS (63.3%). Portland didn't have a day off, but this exact same spot on the second game of a back to back is 20-7 ATS.

This line has been pushed up to a full possession. The Kings are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.

Take Portland.