*3 Star Play on Houston -1.5* The Houston Astros were swept at home in a 4 game series by the Seattle Mariners in the series ending August 12. The Astros finally broke out offensively yesterday in beating the A's to get back in the lead in the AL West. You have to think they want to get some revenge on Seattle for that 4 game sweep in Houston last weekend.

Gerrit Cole has been so good for the Astros. Cole hasn't allowed more than 4 runs in any game all season. He has been at the top of his game lately. His FIP has been 2.46 or lower in 7 straight games! Even the games he gave up a few runs in, it has been due to bad batted ball luck or not stranding runners on base. Cole has 2 walks and 25 strikeouts in his last three starts.

The Mariners lineup has a low weighted on base average of just .266 against Cole in his career.

Felix Hernandez has allowed 22 runs in his last 19 and 1/3 innings pitched. Hernandez has a low swinging strike rate of 8.4%. In contrast, Cole has a tremendous 13.8% swinging strike rate.

The Astros are healthier than they were for the last series with the Mariners. Houston has the best bullpen ERA and FIP this year, so they have a clear edge there as well.

Take Houston -1.5.

*3 Star MLB Bookie CRUSHER* The St. Louis Cardinals have been playing some great baseball of late. The Cardinals got a big boost from getting rid of Mike Matheny. It's been a breath of fresh air with Mike Shildt as the manager.

Matt Carpenter has been the hottest hitter in baseball, and this Cardinals lineup is much deeper than the average lineup in the National League. The young guys like Bader and DeJong have been coming up with a lot of big hits recently.

Chacin starts for the Brewers, and he has a 6.90 ERA in his career against the Cardinals. Chacin has historically been much worse in day game starts than night starts. The Cardinals have a career .432 OBP against him.

John Gant has been throwing the ball well of late. In 5 of his last 7 starts, he's allowed 2 runs or less. His FIP has been below 2 in two consecutive starts in his last two outings.

The Brewers are 1-10 in their last 11 vs. the NL Central. The Cardinals are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the NL Central. The Cardinals are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. Milwaukee. A 24-1 angle.

Take the Cardinals.

*3 Star Play on Cardinals ML* The St. Louis Cardinals have Miles Mikolas on the mound for this one. Mikolas is a guy I'm pretty high on. He has been really consistent this year, and his ability to avoid walks have helped him stay away from the big inning for the most part. Mikolas allows a 29.7% hard hit rate according to Baseball Savant, which is much lower than the average in the majors. His average exit velocity is low also at 85.3 mph. Mikolas throws strikes and he induces soft contact.

Wade Miley is a guy I'm low on. Miley doesn't miss bats, and he walks quite a few guys. In fact, he has 19 walks and 22 strikeouts on the year. Last game his line looked good on runs allowed, but he had good batted ball luck, and stranded quite a few runners on base. He struck out zero batters in six innings of work last time out.

St. Louis is 7th in the majors in weighted on base average against lefties. The Cardinals have a deep lineup against lefties, and Carpenter is the hottest hitter in baseball.

The Cardinals are 4-0 in Mikolas' last 4 home starts. The Cardinals are 5-0 in his last 5 starts on four days of rest. The Cardinals are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. A 14-0 angle.

Take St. Louis.

*3 Star Play Under* Robbie Ray is much better on the road than at home. Ray has a 5.27 home ERA in his career. He has a 3.19 ERA on the road. His WHIP at home is a staggering 1.543. His WHIP on the road is only 1.203. In 4 starts in San Diego, Ray has a 2.88 ERA.

The Padres have what might be the worst offense in baseball right now. San Diego was just shut down by Clay Buchholz last night. Buchholz threw a complete game, which means Arizona's top bullpen guys are all available for this game.

Joey Lucchesi starts for San Diego here. He has a 2.66 FIP or lower in 4 of his last 5 starts. Lucchesi has deceptive stuff, and he's backed by a deep bullpen. In fact, the Padres have a 2.88 ERA in the past 30 days. They have a 2.82 FIP which is easily the best in baseball during that time.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play Under* The winner of this game gets into the playoffs. The loser goes home. These types of games generally have a lower posted total, and they deserve to since the tempo of the game is usually slower. The game means more than the rest of them, so the pace slows because no one wants to be careless with the basketball.

The first two matchups between these two teams this year had posted totals of 171.5 and 168.5. Now, we get a total in the mid 170's with everything on the line. It doesn't make any sense to me.

Late in the WNBA regular season- betting unders has been a profitable angle in the last ten years. With teams fighting for a playoff spot, that makes me feel stronger about the under.

Las Vegas has slowed their tempo by about 3 possessions in the last four games compared to earlier this year. In their last three games, Dallas has played a little over a possession per game slower.

Take the under.

*3 Star Play on Packers ATS* The Steelers will be without Big Ben, Antonio Brown, and Le'Veon Bell here. Josh Dobbs and Mason Rudolph will get extended time at QB for the Steelers here. Rudolph has some upside but is inexperienced here. Dobbs is a guy I'm not very high on in general.

Aaron Rodgers is expected to play here, and that's a big boost to the Packers even if it is only for a series or two. Green Bay has a big battle going on for the backup job between Brett Hundley and Deshone Kizer. No those two aren't great quarterbacks, but they are better than the guys who will be under center for most teams in the preseason, and they both have a lot of NFL experience already.

Green Bay is 7-2 straight up in their last 9 preseason games. McCarthy values the preseason more than some other coaches. The Steelers are 7-15 SU in their last 22 preseason games. Green Bay is 9-3 SU in their last 12 in week two of the preseason.

The Packers have far more position battles going on and that should keep them more motivated here in front of their home fans.

Take Green Bay.

*4 Star Play Under* Jose Berrios has been tremendous at home in the last couple years. Berrios had a WHIP of 0.95 at home last year. He has a 0.919 WHIP this year. His strikeout/walk ratio is 5.06 at home this season. He's capable of dominating at home, and the Pirates offense is mediocre.

Chris Archer goes against a Twins lineup that is much weaker than they were before the trade deadline. Archer has a 13.3% swinging strike rate so far this year, so he can definitely miss bats.

This is a get away day game and we could see a key bat or two missing here.

Doug Eddings is the single best under umpire in the majors. Eddings has called the highest percentage of strikes of any umpire in the majors for three consecutive years.

The under is a whopping 48-23 in his last 71 games behind home plate with a start time of 4 pm EST or earlier (typically get away day games).

Take the under here.

*3 Star Play on DBacks -1.5* Patrick Corbin has been one of the top ten starting pitchers in baseball this year. He has a solid 3.15 ERA, but a FIP of 2.46 which tells me he has been rather unlucky this season. Corbin has had great consistency. He has had a FIP of 3.99 or lower in each of his last 12 starts. That's almost unheard of. Corbin has 0 walks and 17 strikeouts in his last two starts. He has a 14.9% swinging strikes rate, which is second only to Chris Sale.

Yovani Gallardo has a terrible 5.5% swinging strike rate this year. Gallardo has 13 walks and 12 strikeouts in his last four starts. It's hard to sustain success with those kind of numbers. The Rangers bullpen is also not what it once was before the trade deadline when management traded away a couple of their top guys.

The Rangers are 9-22 in their last 31 vs. a team with a winning record. A big pitching mismatch and the DBacks have a lot more to play for here.

Take Arizona -1.5.

*5 Star MLB Game of the MONTH* The Washington Nationals lost late Sunday night in the most heartbreaking fashion. Washington led the whole way and was up 3-0 before giving up a grand slam with two outs and two strikes to lose to the Cubs. They traveled late night Sunday night and are at a rest disadvantage here.

Washington's bullpen is really thin right now as they deal with some major injury issues. Tim Milone isn't a starter I'd want to rely on when they need a guy to go deep into a game to save the bullpen. Milone was torched last game, and the Cardinals have been hitting lefties very well of late. They have the 4th highest hard hit percentage against lefties in the majors this year. Milone is a guy who has pitched pretty well in Triple A in the past, but he has never consistently been able to get good big league hitters out. He pitched well against the Marlins and Mets in his first two starts this year, but those are terrible offenses. He was crushed by Atlanta last time out.

Miles Mikolas has been rock solid all year. In his last 21 starts, he has allowed 2 runs or less in 17 of them. Mikolas does a great job minimizing walks (just 1.56 per nine innings) and he limits hard contact very well. Opponents average an exit velocity against Mikolas of just 85.1 mph, which is among the top five percent of pitchers in the big leagues.

This was a spot I liked for St. Louis before the Nationals crushing defeat on Sunday night, now I like it even more.

The Cardinals have a healthy bullpen and are playing great baseball since getting rid of former manager Mike Matheny.

The Cardinals are 6-1 in Mikolas' last 7 starts. The Nationals are 5-11 in their last 16 vs. a team with a winning record.

Take St. Louis.

MLB Game of the MONTH

*3 Star Play on Nationals ML* The Washington Nationals aren't going to be this short of a price with Max Scherzer very often at all. Washington is 51-21 in Scherzer's last 72 starts. Scherzer has the highest swinging strike rate of his career this year. He also has the highest percentage of soft contact on batted balls. The Cubs are a good offense, but they are without Kris Bryant right now.

Cole Hamels has been mediocre this year. He's been good in his two starts with the Cubs, but this is the first good lineup he has had to face.

Alan Porter is behind home plate and he has been one of the biggest "road" umpires in the majors in his time behind the plate.

Washington needs wins badly right now, and having a big pitching advantage and a lower lay than normal for Scherzer makes them a play for me.

Take Washington.