*4 Star Play on White Sox ML* This is too good of a price for me to pass up the White Sox with Giolito on the mound.

Lucas Giolito has allowed a grand total of six runs in his last eight starts. Giolito has been mowing down hitters. He has thrown a lot more of his offspeed pitches this year, and that has led to a lot more success. Hitters were blasting his fastball in past seasons. Giolito has a 2.22 ERA, and his FIP is 2.71.

Jon Lester started the season very well, but he has struggled a lot in recent weeks. Lester is allowing a lot more hard contact this year. Lester faces a White Sox lineup that ranks 13th in the majors in on base percentage against left handed pitching.

The White Sox have been competitive this year, and they clearly have the better starting pitcher going here.

I'll grab the big price.

Take the White Sox.

*3 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Braves have the hottest offense in baseball. In the last 14 days, Atlanta has a wOBA of nearly .400. The Braves have a really deep lineup, and they should make Steven Matz work really hard. Atlanta rates 8th in the majors in weighted on base average (wOBA) against lefties.

Max Fried started the season out pitching much better than expected, but he has come down to earth in a big way of late. Fried has allowed 17 runs in his last 20 innings pitched. Fried has allowed more hard contact and has been working from behind in the count. The Mets rank 7th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching.

The heat should help the ball fly well in Atlanta. The Braves bullpen has been used heavily of late, and the Mets bullpen isn't good at all.

The over is 21-5-1 in the Braves last 27 games vs. a team with a losing record.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play on Red Sox ML* Michael Pineda isn't a guy I trust against a really good Boston Red Sox lineup. Boston can struggle against lefties, but they are elite against right handed pitching. The Red Sox are clearly a top 5 offense in the majors against right handed pitching.

Michael Pineda still struggles with giving up the long ball far too often. He is allowing nearly 2 home runs per nine innings pitched. The Red Sox have plenty of power, and they can spoil good pitches and make a pitcher work. Pineda is allowing more than 43% of batted balls to be hard hit according to Fangraphs.

The Twins have beaten up on a weak schedule this year. They are now exactly .500 on the season against teams with a record above .500. Minnesota is a good team, but I don't think they are as good as their record would indicate.

David Price is coming off a really bad start, but he has been very good overall this year. Price had three gems in a row before this last poor start.

The Red Sox are 67-30 in their last 97 road games against a right handed starter. They are 21-7 in Price's last 28 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Take Boston.

*3 Star Play on Braves ML* I don't like to make a habit of betting against Jacob Degrom, but I have to take the Atlanta Braves at plus money here.

The Braves are as hot as anyone in baseball. I underrated this team prior to the season. I knew the offense could be good, but they are far better than I expected. How good have they been of late? Atlanta has a ridiculous .392 weighted on base average (wOBA). Second best in the majors during that time sits at .364 wOBA.

Atlanta's red hot run also comes as their bullpen has pitched much better of late. They have been a top ten bullpen in the last month, and the Mets have been a bottom ten bullpen.

Jacob Degrom has been very good this year, but he hasn't been on the level he was last year. Degrom has a 3.12 FIP this year compared to 1.99 a year ago.

Julio Teheran has been pitching great of late. Teheran has eight straight starts where he has allowed 1 earned run or less.

The Braves are 7-0 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record. They are 10-1 in their last 11 vs. a right handed starter. The Mets are 0-5 in Degrom's last 5 road starts. A combined 22-1 angle.

Take Atlanta.

*4 Star Play Over* The wind is blowing out at about 10 or 11 mph in Washington. This is a park where the wind blowing out makes a big difference. We saw how big of a difference that can make on Saturday when the ball was flying extremely well.

Archie Bradley isn't a guy I trust, and he now starts. Godley will throw behind him, and he has been in bad form. The Nats offense has heated up a lot of late.

Anibal Sanchez has been solid lately, but he has faced some weaker offenses. I don't think he is nearly as good as he has looked recently.

Favorable conditions and two offenses swinging the bat well.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Rays have a strong "opener" going here in Stanek. He fits this role very well. Jalen Beeks has been throwing it really well also and he is the pitcher who will come in after Stanek.

Griffin Canning looks like a good big league pitcher. He has a nice arsenal of pitches at his disposal and he can limit hard contact.

In 10 of the Tampa Bay Rays last 12 games, the total has finished at 8 or lower.

Take the under here.

*3 Star Play on Rangers ML* The Cincinnati Reds have talent, but they are a banged up team and they are finding ways to lose games right now. Scooter Gennett has been out all year, and they really miss him. Nick Senzel may miss this game after taking a foul ball to the eye last night and getting stitches. Joey Votto and Yasiel Puig haven't produced the way they were expected to this season so far.

The Texas Rangers come into this game feeling awfully good about themselves. The Rangers are 11-5 in their last 16 games. They are 6-2 in their last 8 games. Ariel Jurado has been better than expected this year, and the bullpen has been much improved in the past few weeks.

Sonny Gray is a solid pitcher, but the Reds have plenty of flaws and this is a huge price for them to be laying.

Taking average AL teams and backing them in interleague play has been a great angle in the last decade. The Rangers fit that angle here. The Reds are 29-63 in their last 92 interleague games. The Reds are 5-21 in their last 26 interleague home games against a team with a winning record.

Take Texas.

*3 Star Play on Nationals -1.5* The Washington Nationals have Stephen Strasburg on the mound on Saturday. Strasburg has been excellent all year. He has a good 3.36 ERA, but his FIP of 2.77 suggests he is even better than that. Strasburg appears to have some positive regression coming. According to Baseball Savant, Strasburg is allowing the smallest percentage of hard hit batted balls this year that has has in the past five seasons. He is at a career high in swinging strikes as well.

The Diamondbacks offense has been great against left handed pitching and only mediocre against right handed pitching.

Taylor Clarke isn't a good pitcher. He had a 4.03 ERA in Triple A last year, and in Triple A this year he had 7.22 ERA. He doesn't have swing and miss stuff, and he gives up a lot of hard contact on fly balls.

The weather here calls for warm weather and winds blowing out 10-15 mph. Strasburg has been good at suppressing home runs, and the Nationals have been playing better of late.

Take Washington -1.5.

*3 Star MLB Late Night BAILOUT* The Los Angeles Dodgers are 26-7 at home this year. The Dodgers have what I believe is the best roster in the National League. It is going to be rare to see them at a price like this.

The Chicago Cubs have played well this year, but I don't see them as on the same level as the Dodgers. The Cubs are only 14-19 on the road this year. Chicago has some stars in the lineup, but they aren't as deep as the Dodgers are offensively.

Rich Hill has been tremendous of late. Hill has allowed an average exit velocity of only 83.5 mph this year, which is in the top 2% of all pitchers in the big leagues. Hill has allowed 2 runs or less in five straight starts.

Kyle Hendricks is a solid pitcher, but the Dodgers have the best on base percentage against right handed pitching of any team in the majors (.350).

The Dodgers are a whopping 41-13 in their last 54 home games. They are 22-5 in their last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning record.

Take the Dodgers.

*3 Star NBA Finals Game 6 CASH* The Golden State Warriors stayed alive by winning Game 5 in Toronto. That was a game with all kinds of drama. The Raptors made a big run and appeared to be on the brink of winning it, but then the Warriors made a run to finish the game and won by two.

Kevin Durant's injury was painful to watch, and it was a shame to see his season end in that fashion. Durant's absence hurts the Warriors a lot on offense. They are clearly still a very good offense with Curry and Thompson, but Durant can be unguardable. Toronto can now try to take their chances on leaving Green and Iguodala open from long range.

Toronto's supporting cast has been inconsistent on offense at times throughout the offseason. Leonard should have another good game here, but we will see what the Raptors do from long range.

These two teams are both very underrated on the defensive end. Golden State's defense was excellent in the closing minutes in Game 5. The Raptors have a lot of length and athleticism, and they are a tough matchup.

The pace has gotten slower in each of the last three games. As the game means more, things usually slow down. The tempo started at about 100 possessions per game, and the last two games have been 94.5 and 94 possessions. I wouldn't see any reason to expect a faster paced game here. It's a potential close out game and these have been very strongly toward the under in the past decade.

Look for a hard fought game here.

Take the under.