*3 Star Play on Wisconsin* The Wisconsin Badgers lost at home to Xavier early in the season last year. Last year's Wisconsin team was badly banged up and they didn't have the upside that Wisconsin has had in other recent seasons.

The Badgers got everyone back and they are healthy now. This will be a much improved team this season.

Xavier was a top ranked seed in the NCAA Tournament last year. They lost Chris Mack to Louisville in the offseason. They also lost their 3 best players. Xavier is going through a major change and I expect this to take some time. The Musketeers aren't a bad team, but they are way down from the past few years.

Wisconsin is on a mission to make up for a disappointing season last year. The Badgers are also looking for revenge for losing at home to Xavier last year. Wisconsin has the best player on the floor in Ethan Happ here.

I think the veteran Badgers take care of business here.

Take Wisconsin.

*3 Star Play on St. Joe's* The Monmouth Hawks haven't impressed me at all in their first two games. Monmouth was beaten by 24 points at home by Lehigh in the season opener. Lehigh actually led by 30 points with less than 3 minutes to play in that game. Monmouth then lost by 13 to Colgate on the road. Colgate isn't a very good team, and that is certainly a disappointing loss for Monmouth.

St. Joe's has dealt with a multitude of injuries in the past couple seasons. The Hawks have potential to be a very good team, and they looked great in their season opening win over Old Dominion. St. Joe's won that one by 15 points. Old Dominion is a very solid team, and St. Joe's played some great basketball in that one.

Monmouth will be a team that has turnover problems this year, and St. Joe's is excellent at protecting the basketball. The Hawks have several very good players, and they should take care of a Monmouth team still searching for an identity.

Take St. Joe's.

*3 Star NFL Red Hot CASH* The Green Bay Packers are coming off two straight tough losses. Green Bay is clearly playing much better as the season moves along, and I see them bouncing back here against a poor Miami team. First, I'll note that Green Bay has played the 9th toughest schedule in the NFL. Miami has played the second easiest schedule in the NFL.

Aaron Rodgers has a big moneymaker for bettors long-term, and even laying 8 points or more he has been money in the bank at home. He's been at his best coming off a loss.

The single strongest area of the Green Bay defense is their pass rush. They rank third in the NFL when it comes to rushing the passer. Miami's pass protection ranks 24th, and the Dolphins have severe injuries on the offensive line. Miami will be without at least one starting offensive linemen. Two other starters on the line are gametime decisions with injuries. Coach Adam Gase said, "If you have a pulse, you're in the mix. We're out of guys" when asked about the status of his offensive line this week.

Brock Osweiler is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, and him behind a weak offensive line and facing an elite pass rush should worry Miami fans and coaches a lot. Osweiler has been bad in general, but he's been particularly bad on the road. How bad? He is 2-7 ATS in his last 9 road games. In those 7 road losses with Brock as the starter, his teams are losing by 19.2 points per game.

Green Bay should get right against an overrated Miami team with injury issues and a bad quarterback.

Take Green Bay.

*3 Star Play on Jaguars* The Jacksonville Jaguars have lost four straight games. The Colts have won their last two, though those were against two terrible opponents. The Colts have faced the 27th toughest schedule in the NFL thus far. The Jaguars have faced the 8th toughest schedule in the NFL.

Before the season, everyone expected the Jaguars to be better than the Colts. I think they are still the better team. Their recent woes have inflated this line to the point where I have to take Jacksonville. I like the bye week as a chance for the Jaguars to prepare to make a final stand.

Jacksonville still has a chance in this division. This is a weak division where no one is going to run away and hide. The Jaguars can't afford to lose this game though. Fortunately for them, they get Leonard Fournette back and they are going against the 25th ranked run defense in the NFL when adjusted for strength of schedule played. I expect the Jaguars to have success on the ground here.

The Jaguars have the much better defense and are getting a full field goal. The Colts still have a lot to prove since they have beaten up on weak competition.

Take the Jaguars.

*4 Star NFL System Play SMASHER* The Tennessee Titans have been good against quality teams of late. They are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 vs. teams with a winning record. Tennessee seemed to have turned a corner in their tight loss against the Chargers 20-19 in London. The Titans then went and thumped the Cowboys in Dallas on Monday night.

New England is clearly a very good team, but the Patriots haven't been very impressive on the road so far this year. They were dominated by the Jaguars and the Lions earlier in the season. They beat the Bears a couple weeks ago by a touchdown despite being outgained in that one. They then beat Buffalo, who is the worst team in the NFL. The Patriots are laying an awfully big number here against a Titans team that has potential and is playing well of late. The Titans have clearly played a tougher schedule than the Patriots to this point in the year as well.

This one fits a contrarian system I follow that has done very well in the NFL. A home underdog of 6 points or more that is receiving less than 25% of the bets. This system is 64-25 ATS (72%) in the last 89 spots.

I'll go contrarian and take the Titans at home here.

Take Tennessee.

*4 Star Play Under* UAB ranks 8th in the country in yards per play allowed. Southern Miss ranks 16th in yards per play allowed. Both of these defenses are much improved from a year ago. Both offenses play much slower than the average team. UAB is favored here and is likely to be winning and running the clock and taking their time in the second half.
Southern Miss has very little running game and UAB has a tremendous secondary. I think Southern Miss will have a lot of trouble scoring here.
UAB and Southern Miss are both very good at not giving up big chunks of yardage. There should be a lot of moving clock here and a limited amount of big plays.
Take the under.

*3 Star Play on Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves are the fastest paced team in the Sun Belt. They have a veteran quarterback and the best wide receivers in the conference. Coastal Carolina's defense has been extremely weak all year. Coastal Carolina is allowing a whopping 8.48 yards per play in the Sun Belt. That's easily worst in the league. Coastal Carolina is worst in both pass defense and run defense in the league.

Coastal Carolina's triple option should be able to move the ball against a weak Arkansas State run defense. The Red Wolves are allowing 5.52 yards per carry in the conference. Coastal Carolina is 34th in the nation in yards per play.

Arkansas State has allowed 28 plays of 30 yards or more this year. Coastal Carolina has allowed 30 plays of 30 yards or more. These are both among the worst in the nation. I see a lot of explosive plays back and forth here.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Under* This Alabama offense is tremendous, but Mississippi State clearly has the best defense they have faced so far this year. LSU ranks 39th in yards per play allowed. Mississippi State ranks 5th in yards per play allowed. Alabama will get their points here, but I think it will be tougher than it normally has for them this season.

Mississippi State's Nick Fitzgerald hasn't proven he is capable of doing much of anything through the air against any quality defenses this year. Alabama will load up the box and force him to beat them through the air. While Alabama's defensive stats don't look amazing compared to some years, when they are in a closer game where they are focused like we saw last week against LSU this unit is elite.

Both teams play very slow. Mississippi State ranks 110th in pace of play and Alabama ranks 91st. A lot of running from both teams here helps the clock keep moving.

Alabama is less likely to be fully motivated and that lowers the odds of them running up the score here. They wanted to prove a point last week and they proved that point in Baton Rouge.

Take the under.

*4 Star CFB ATS Play of Week* The Pittsburgh Panthers started out the season playing poorly, but they have really come on of late. Pittsburgh now leads the ACC Coastal Division and this is a great chance for them to pull further ahead of Virginia Tech.

The Hokies don't have the defense they have had in past years. Virginia Tech ranks 87th in yards per play allowed. They didn't have much depth up front and they have a lot of injury/suspension issues in the front seven. The Hokies are allowing 4.39 yards per carry this year. Pittsburgh is going to run the ball early and often here. Pitt ranks 12th in the nation in yards per carry on offense. The Panthers are averaging 5.77 yards per carry. Look for Pitt to have a lot of success running the ball here.

Virginia Tech has been more reliant on the passing game this year. It is expected to be pretty windy here with winds of around 15 mph during this game. That hurts Virginia Tech more than Pitt. The Hokies don't have an explosive offense at all. They have only 15 plays of 30 yards or more this year.

Pitt has played the 17th toughest schedule so far this year according to Sagarin. VA Tech has played the 51st toughest schedule. These are two teams headed in different directions right now.

Take Pittsburgh.

*3 Star Play on Liberty* The Virginia Cavs are in the middle of a battle for the ACC Coastal Division. Virginia plays two rival teams in the next two games after this. They play against Georgia Tech and then their main rival Virginia Tech. If there is one game they would overlook or sleepwalk through this game against Liberty is the one.

For Liberty, this is one of the biggest games of the history of their program. Liberty's campus and Virginia's aren't that far apart, and Liberty is in their first year as an FBS program. Liberty should be supremely motivated here. The Flames are at least competitive under Turner Gill this year.

This meets a non-conference system that has been extremely strong. Fading a big favorite late in the season in non-conference games has been a big moneymaker. Non-conference favorites of 13 points or more are hitting at only 42% ATS since 2005.

This game means more to Liberty and Virginia should want to get out with a win and be ready for the next couple weeks. Additionally, Virginia is badly banged up on defense now. The Cavs are a running team that plays slowly and that limits their offensive possessions.

Take Liberty.