*3 Star Play on Oakland ML* Mike Fiers is a good fit for Oakland Coliseum. Fiers has a 2.89 ERA with a .273 wOBA at home. Fiers is certainly up against a very good offense here, but he has pitched well at home against the Red Sox and the Twins this season.

J.A. Happ goes against an Oakland team that can throw a lot of very good right handed batters against you. The A's rank 6th in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. Happ has allowed 23 homers against right handed batters this year, and righties have a wOBA of .347 against him.

Teams from the east who aren't accustomed to playing Oakland have historically done very poorly here. The Yankees are 7-15 in their last 22 games in Oakland. That's their worst record in any AL ballpark since 2013.

The A's are 16-4 in Fiers' last 20 home starts.

Take Oakland.

*3 Star Play on Cardinals ML* Adam Wainwright has been a different pitcher at home this year. Wainwright has a tremendous 2.19 ERA and a .292 weighted on base average allowed at home this season.

Adrian Houser is coming off a very good outing, but he has been inconsistent this season. Houser has a 4.24 ERA with a .338 wOBA allowed on the road.

The Brewers bullpen isn't nearly as strong as it was last season. St. Louis clearly has the deeper bullpen. Milwaukee hasn't been too bad against weak teams on the road, but they haven't been able to beat good teams away from home. They are 1-8 in their last 9 road games against teams with a winning record.

The Cardinals are 17-4 in their last 21 vs. the NL Central. They are 47-20 in Wainwright's last 67 home starts. They are also 6-0 in their last 6 games against Milwaukee.

Take St. Louis.

*3 Star Play on Phillies ML* This is a primarily a fade of Brian Johnson. Johnson starts for the Red Sox here, and he isn't a good pitcher at all. He has a career worst swinging strike rate of 6.9% this year. He has allowed 7 runs in his last 8 innings pitched. He continues to have a very high walk rate and a low swinging strike rate. He is also prone to giving up the home run ball.

Aaron Nola started the season off slowly, but he has been very good of late. Nola has a stellar 2.09 ERA since June 23. He has allowed 2 runs or less in 8 of his last 11 starts. He hasn't allowed more than 4 runs in any of those starts.

The Red Sox have been playing better of late, but they have been beating up on bad teams. Boston is 2-9 in their last 11 games vs. teams with a winning record. The Phillies are an impressive 38-17 in Nola's last 55 starts.

Take Philadelphia.

*3 Star Play on DBacks -1.5* The Colorado Rockies start Chi Chi Gonzalez in this one. I usually try to find a way to fade Gonzalez, and it has worked more often than not. Gonzalez just isn't a good pitcher at all. Gonzalez has a 6.57 ERA and a 6.91 FIP this year. In Triple A, he has a 6.10 ERA and a 5.75 FIP. He has a very low 7.3% swinging strike rate, and he gives up a bunch of hard contact. According to Baseball Savant, 47.1% of batted balls off Gonzalez classified as hard hit so far this season.

Zac Gallen was a very highly touted prospect and he's been very good so far this year in the big leagues. Gallen has an impressive 12.6% swinging strike rate thus far. He has multiple plus pitches.

The Rockies win some games at home, but their road record of late is horrendous. In their last 19 road games, betting the other team at -1.5 has cashed 13 of those 19 games.

Arizona is only 4.5 games out of the NL Wild Card (I don't think they'll make it), which means they still have plenty to play for this season. The Rockies are out of the playoff chase.

Colorado's bullpen is among the worst in the majors, while the DBacks bullpen is league average or slightly better.

Take Arizona -1.5.

*3 Star Play Over* Citizens Bank Ballpark is one where the weather matters quite a it. Hot days with the wind blowing out have been very good for the over in the past. How good? With a temperature of 84 degrees or higher and wind blowing out at all the over is 55-38 (59%). When that wind is 7 mph or more the over is 37-18-1. A temperature of 90 degrees with winds out at 7 or 8 mph are in the forecast here.

Jason Vargas and Joey Lucchesi both have splits that show them getting worse in the second half of the season in their careers. Both of these teams are a lot better offensively against lefties than righties as well.

Lucchesi has a 1.16 WHIP in the first half in his career and a 1.40 WHIP in the second half. His starts on day games have been notably worst than night games as well.

Tom Woodring is a great over umpire behind the dish as well. The over is 10-2 in his last 12 games behind the plate.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play on Cardinals ML* The St. Louis Cardinals are in first place in the NL Central race, but they need every win they can get right now. Cincinnati has fallen apart in the last few games. The Reds lost a key contest this past weekend against the Cubs when they were up late in that one and gave up a 3-0 lead in the late innings. They haven't come back from that. It doesn't help that the injury/suspensions problems are piling up.

Joey Votto and Jesse Winker are two very good left handed bats, and both of them have missed the last two days with back injuries. They are questionable for this one. Amir Garrett is serving his suspension now. The Reds bullpen is running on fumes right now, and they have been a complete mess of late.

In the Cardinals, you have what is a top five bullpen in baseball. The Reds rank 3rd worst in bullpen ERA in the past month, and their bullpen FIP is 6.04 during that time. This is a total mismatch in the bullpen.

Miles Mikolas has thrown better late in the year in the past. Anthony Desclafani is against him here, and he has some major home run issues. The heat makes the ball really fly at GABP this time of the year.

The Cardinals are 14-3 in their last 17 vs. the NL Central.

Take St. Louis.

*3 Star Play on Nationals -1.5* The Washington Nationals start Patrick Corbin in this one. Corbin had a break out season last year with increasing the usage of his tremendous slider. He started the season a little slowly this year, but he has been great of late. Corbin has a 2.45 ERA and a 2.54 FIP since June 19. In 8 of his 10 starts since then, he has allowed 2 runs or less.

Corbin has been amazing at home this year. He has a 1.78 ERA at home and opponents have a ridiculously low .222 weighted on base average against him when he is at home.

The Brewers are 9th in the majors in wOBA against right handed pitching. They rank 21st in the majors in wOBA against lefties.

The Nationals have been playing good baseball for the last couple months. The Nationals have been particularly strong at home. Adrian Houser is far from a strong starter, and he doesn't pitch deep into the game normally. The Brewers middle relief has been very weak this year.

Since I don't want to lay a big price on the moneyline here, I'm going to back the Nationals on the run line.

Take Washington -1.5.

*3 Star Play on White Sox ML* The Chicago White Sox have been significantly better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching this year. Andrew Heaney is working his way back from an injury and it is hard to say what we'll get from him. There is a lot of potential variance here and this is a big plus number price on the White Sox.

The Angels have been losing a bunch of games to poor teams on their home field of late. The Orioles, Tigers, and Pirates have all given them a lot of trouble. The Angels are banged up. Their defense has been really bad of late. The bullpen is a problem. Andrelton Simmons is clearly missed badly at shortstop.

The White Sox have a young team and they are improving right now. Reynaldo Lopez starts here, and he has always been considered a high upside guy, but he was terrible in the first half of the season. Lopez has looked like a completely different pitcher in the second half of the season though. Lopez has a stellar 2.13 ERA in six starts since the break. He has a FIP of 2.87 in those six starts.

The White Sox are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a left handed starter. The Angels are 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing record.

Take the White Sox.

*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies are both significantly better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching. Both lineups will square off against a lefty in this matchup.

Arizona ranks 3rd in the majors in wOBA against left handed pitching. The Rockies rank 9th in wOBA against lefties.

The Rockies are dead last in the majors in wOBA on the road, and they are first in the majors in wOBA at home. Coors Field is still the ultimate hitters ballpark. Arizona has scored 8 and 9 runs in the first two games of this series.

The DBacks bullpen has been middle of the road in the past month, but the Rockies have the second worst bullpen ERA in the majors in the past 30 days.

Robbie Ray has been absolutely torched by this Rockies offense. While his ERA looks decent at Coors, his WHIP is a very high 1.761 here. Ray has allowed an awful .492 wOBA against this Rockies lineup overall in his career. Kyle Freeland has been a mess all year, and the DBacks have given him major trouble in the past. Arizona has an impressive .378 wOBA against him.

With a temperature in the low 90's for a day game at Coors, I expect a lot of runs.

Take the over.

*3 Star Play Over* Matt Boyd was tremendous earlier this year. Boyd had a .267 weighted on base average allowed through the first two months of the year. He has gradually fallen off since that time. Boyd has allowed 4 runs or more in 7 of his last 10 games. He has a 5.08 ERA and a .324 wOBA allowed in the second half of the season thus far. In his last game, he walked 3 batters and only struck out one.
Yusei Kikuchi has been disappointing this year. He has a 5.34 ERA and 5.88 FIP. Kikuchi has a terrible 6.93 ERA and a .416 wOBA in the second half of the season thus far.
The Mariners and Tigers are both significantly better against left handed pitching than right handed pitching.
These two bullpens rank 28th and 29th in the majors in FIP on the season.
The wind is blowing out at Comerica, and this is a park with very strong angles to the over with the wind blowing out. In fact, with a temperature of 65 degrees or warmer and a wind blowing out at 10 mph or more (11 mph out is the forecast here) the over is a whopping 44-19 in the last 63 situations.
Take the over.