*10* NCAAF Game of the Week (Power Sports) ~ +7.5 Mizzou OUTRIGHT Last Wk!
Troy vs. Georgia Southern,
12/03/2016 12:00 EDT,
Score: 24 - 28
Point Spread: +7/-108 Georgia Southern
10* Georgia Southern (12:00 ET): Classic contrarian play here. Troy is absolutely overvalued here as they still have a chance to clinch a share of the Sun Belt title w/ a win. Appalachian State (idle this week) is already guaranteed no worse than a share at 7-1 SU in league play and there's a strong likelihood that Arkansas State will finish w/ the same record as they finish the regular season against the worst team in the country, Texas State. Troy had not lost a SBC game until being blown out by Arkansas State, 35-3, at home two weeks ago. They bounced back w/ a predictable 40-7 drubbing of Texas State last Saturday. Meanwhile, Georgia Southern had last weekend off. While the Eagles won't be going bowling this year, this is an excellent shot to play "spoiler" and the Seniors will definitely want to go out as winners (especially w/ this game being on ESPN2). Take the points.
1st year GSU HC Tyson Summers inherited a team that had gone 14-2 SU vs. the rest of the Sun Belt the last two years. They opened 2-0 in conference this year, 3-0 overall. But things have since gone "in reverse" in Statesboro as the team is 4-7 SU mark (3-4 conference). The Eagles played a challenging non-conference slate that included Ole Miss, Georgia Tech and Western Michigan. While Troy played Clemson tough early in the year, I'll argue that Georgia Southern is much better than its record. The Eagles have been outscored by only 2.6 PPG in Sun Belt action and just 0.2 PPG overall! Their last two games have both been losses by seven pts or less where they were favored.
The market has clearly whiffed on Georgia Southern, who is 2-9 ATS including three outright losses as a favorite. In fact, they've gone just 1-6 ATS when asked to lay points. The only four teams that they were an underdog to are: Ole Miss, Georgia Tech, Western Michigan and Appalachian State. Of those, App State was the lone home game. The Eagles were picked to finish ahead of the Trojans prior to the start of the year, so this line has to be viewed as a bargain, especially considering GSU was a six-point favorite AT Troy LY and won 45-10! In two meetings as SBC rivals, the Eagles have outscored the Trojans 87-20! 10* Georgia Southern