-

Power Sports' Saturday ANTI-PUBLIC BURIAL ~ 75% ALL-TIME!

Power Sports' Saturday ANTI-PUBLIC BURIAL ~ 75% ALL-TIME!

Baylor vs. West Virginia, 12/03/2016 15:30 EDT, Score: 21 - 24

Point Spread: +17½/-110 Baylor

Sportsbook: Bovada

Result: Win

8* Baylor (3:30 ET): I fully understand that it's a bit of toxic situation in Waco w/ an underacheiving team playing for a lame duck head coach. Following a 6-0 SU start, the Bears have lost five in a row coming into the regular season finale, which will be a challenge here in Morgantown. But w/ nothing to play for here themselves; WVU probably isn't looking to win by any kind of margin here. This number, which has been bet up throughout the course of the week, was already inflated to begin with. To me, the spread should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 pts, not 17. So we're getting some good value w/ a team that was 6-0 at one point and has actually been the betting favorite in four of their five losses. They put up over 600 total yds LW vs. Texas Tech, but were undone by a -4 turnover margin. Take the points.

Baylor has had an extra day to prepare here, which is a bit of advantage. While they put up 634 total yards of offense last Friday, the Bears defense also gave up 600+ (646). While you might expect to find that the Bears have a poor pass defense, that's not really the case as they rank #2 in Big 12, allowing just 234.2 YPG. I do not expect WVU QB Skylar Howard to have the same kind of success he did LW vs. Iowa State where he somehow completed 12 passes for 330 yards, an average of 27.2 yards per completion w/ 5 TDs! On offense, Baylor still averages 36.2 PPG and even w/ a backup QB (Zach Smith), I expect them to put plenty of points on the board. Remember that this is a "plug and play" offense and virtually every QB in the system has thrived. This is almost unprecedented territory for the Bears as an underdog. They were 19.5-pt dogs at Oklahoma, but the previous two seasons had found them getting points just twice total and both lines were five-points or less.

Though the final score read 49-19 last week for the Mountaineers, total yardage w/ Iowa State was fairly even. It was 613-561, but the key was being +4 in turnover margin, the opposite of Baylor's game last week. Given the # of total yards LW, you may not think this matters, but WVU is w/o its top three running backs and was forced to take the redshirt off Martell Pettaway. Though better Baylor teams have lost the L2 visits to Morgantown, I can't help but remember Baylor won LY's meeting in Waco 62-38 as 20-pt favorites. The market has moved far too much against Jim Grobe's team. 8* Baylor


« Back