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Situational Smash

Situational Smash

Arkansas State vs. Texas State, 12/03/2016 19:30 EDT, Score: 36 - 14

Point Spread: +24/-105 Texas State

Sportsbook: Bovada

Result: Win

Situational Smash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Game #320 Saturday - 8* Texas State Bobcats (+) vs Arkansas State Red Wolves @ 7:30 ET - Nothing I can say about Texas State is going to help you to get excited about making a wager on a team that is 2-9 this season and has gone only 4-7 ATS. However, what I will tell you is that is there are some key situational edges working in their favor here. Of course it is the final home game of the careers for a number of Bobcats seniors including their QB. They are undoubtedly going to bring a strong effort tonight as they look to go out a winner. Of course the chances of an upset win are slim as you can tell by the number posted on this game but Texas State is getting some help from mother nature today. I reside in the south central Texas area and it has been raining heavily since yesterday and this is expected to be an all-weekend event with the rain. This weather is very likely to limit the Arkansas State offense and bad weather almost always favors a big underdog who is just trying to "hang around" in a game and I expect that to be the case here with the Bobcats. They are catching the Red Wolves in a flat spot. While it is true that Arkansas State can still get a share of the SBC Title with a win here, they would have had a shot at the outright conference title if they had just won last week at UL-Lafayette. That loss to the Ragin' Cajuns really let the air out of the sails of Arky State and they will likely be a little flat here. It's hard to get up for a game after the disappointment of blowing your shot at an outright title. Also, the home team has won and covered all 3 all-time meetings between these schools. The points are huge here when you consider that the Red Wolves are only averaging 26.2 points per game this season. This is not an offensive juggernaut, this is not good weather, and this is not a good situation for Arkansas State after last week's disappointment. Add it all up and you have the perfect spot (literally) for the ugly dog to get the job done here as the home team improves to 4-0 ATS all-time in this series. 8* TEXAS STATE Saturday evening


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