Brandon Shively’s 10* College Hoops Top Play for Monday
Troy vs. Georgia State,
01/09/2017 19:00 EDT,
Score: 80 - 77
Point Spread: +6/-106 Troy
Play on Troy Trojans Monday 7:00 PM EST
I like Troy as an underdog here. The Trojans are an improved team this year, built on more experience, players that have excelled, and also a few new players, including Devon Walker that came from Florida. Playing on the road won’t be a problem here as Troy has been on the road out West this year and also in conference play. While they went 0-4 SU in these road games, they are 4-0 ATS in them also, very close to winning straight up. As a road underdog, Troy is 5-0 ATS their last 5 this year with all final margins being 6 points or less. They gave USC a helluva game until the final minute. They played great defense at Wyoming which is a tough place for any school to play at. Troy is averaging almost 80 ppg their L5 games and shooting the ball at a much better rate than Georgia State. Their top 4 scorers all shoot 73% or better from the foul line and 35% or better from the 3 point line.
As Georgia State lost several key members of their team from last year, coach Ron Hunter has tried speeding up the tempo, which has his team ranked 337th, turning the ball over 23.2% of the time. Georgia State’s only cover in their last 7 lined game was as an underdog against MTSU. In a game that might be close, Georgia State’s 62% free throw shooting as a team is also part of the handicap here.
Georgia State is 3-7 ATS since 2007 against Troy. 7 of these 10 meetings has finished with a final margin of 5 points or less. Ga State is only 1-7-1 ATS as a home favorite since 1/16/2016 including 0-4 ATS when a favorite of 6 points or less.
I feel we have the better team with more experience thus far in the season. Troy is tired of losing games by 1 or 2 possessions. They fight hard here.