Brandon Shively’s College Hoops Lay it and Play it Blowout Winner
Mississippi State vs. Arkansas,
01/10/2017 21:00 EDT,
Score: 84 - 78
Point Spread: -9½/-110 Arkansas
Play on Arkansas Razorbacks Tuesday 9:00 PM EST
I like Arkansas to run away with this game. Just to set the stage, Arkansas is clearly the better offensive, defensive, and more experienced team here and they are playing in their honey hole at Bud Walton Arena. Arkansas lost a home game earlier this year against Florida, but that was the same day that Arkansas played in their College Bowl game. A lot of Arkansas fans were at the football game instead of the basketball game. Also, I think some of the Arkansas kids might not have been focused. The Hogs are a good team coming off a loss, especially at home.
Arkansas is 4-0 SU and ATS their last 4 home games vs Mississippi State with all covers being by 5 points or less. When Arkansas is off a loss and is a home favorite playing with revenge, they are 16-8 ATS (5-2 ATS when a Favorite of 9 or more points). They lost at Mississippi State last year by 32 points.
Mississippi State is playing only their 2nd true road of the game last Saturday. It was a win against LSU. That was a nice win for the school as they shot a very high percentage from the 3 point line. The Tigers are not that good of a three point shooting team and I don’t expect them to make all those shots against Arkansas. Mississippi State is 1-14 SU their L15 as a road dog when playing a team with revenge. Twelve of those 14 losses came by 10 or more points.
Arkansas played Kentucky fairly tough for the majority of the game. They will build off that game here. Arkansas also likes to push the tempo and will dictate the tempo here against a Mississippi State team that will be playing faster than what their comfort level is. I have them winning this game in the 13-14 point range.