Boston vs. Baltimore,
06/01/2017 19:05 EDT,
Score: 5 - 7
Money Line: -117 Boston
*4 Star MLB 100% Angle CRUSHER* Eduardo Rodriguez has really impressed me this year. Rodriguez had a 4.71 ERA last year and his ERA is down to 2.77 so far this year. He has been a prized prospect for a long time, and now he is taking that next step.
Two years ago, Rodriguez had a swinging strike rate against of 7.9%. Last year it went up to 10.6% and this year it is 12.0%. The movement on his fastball is much better this year
Rodriguez has a great history against the Orioles. While I don't see pitcher/hitter past matchup results as a good sole reason to make a bet, when they align with my original lean it is very helpful. Rodriguez has held Orioles hitters to a .229 average in a fairly large sample size. Even better is his ERA at Camden Yards is only 1.34. That's in six starts.
Wade Miley is a regression candidate and his hard contact rate is the highest of his career. Opponents haven't been fooled very often by him this year. The Red Sox are without Pedroia, but they still have a very good offense.
The Red Sox have a big bullpen advantage, especially with Britton out for the Orioles.
Boston is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 4-0 in Rodriguez's last 4 starts overall. The Orioles are 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or lower. The Red Sox are 4-0 in Rodriguez's last 4 starts at Baltimore. A 20-0 angle.