Cleveland vs. Kansas City,
06/02/2017 20:15 EDT,
Score: 0 - 4
Money Line: +100 Cleveland
*4 Star MLB Friday's BEST Bet* The Cleveland Indians are much better than their record would indicate. I expect this Indians team to hit their stride soon and take over in a big way atop the American League Central.
The Indians have had some really bad batted ball luck on offense and when on the mound in high leverage situations. This kind of thing evens out over time. The Tribe are getting some much better contributions from Edwin Encarnacion in recent games, and Francisco Lindor is a star. Michael Brantley is looking healthy once again as well, and that's a big help.
Jason Vargas started the season pitching brilliantly, but of late he has slowed down quite a bit. Vargas has a 2.39 ERA on the year, but a 4.42 xFIP and a 4.20 SIERA. Vargas had a game xFIP's of less than 4 in each of his first starts this year. In each of his last 6 starts, his game by game xFIP was 4.54 or worse every single game. He's stranded 84% of runners this year and that isn't sustainable.
Josh Tomlin has held KC batters to a .296 OBP in his career. Vargas has allowed Tribe hitters an OBP of .364. The Indians are 17-4 in Tomlin's last 21 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Even money for the much better team with a huge bullpen advantage? I'll take it.