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thursday

thursday

LA Dodgers vs. Atlanta, 10/03/2013 20:37 EDT, Score: 6 - 1

Total: +116/+6 Over

Sportsbook: Pinnacle

Result: Win

10-unit Play Take Los Angeles Dodgers/Atlanta Braves OVER 6 (8:35pm EST) Game 1 of the NLDS between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Atlanta Braves begins tonight. We generally look for good Under spots in the playoffs, but in this instance we see good value playing Over the small total here. You don't see too many 6's, and especially when a game is featuring two potent offenses like these. The Dodgers were the best hitting team in the NL on a park-adjusted basis this season. That's impressive considering they played the first two months of the season without Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig, both of who are in the lineup for today. The Braves are no slouches either. They were fourth in the NL offensively on a park-adjusted basis and fought through quite a bit of injuries of their own throughout the season. They also led the league in home runs this season with 181. The total on this game is extremely low based on the pitchers taking the mound today. Clayton Kershaw is certainly the best pitcher in the NL and will be a tough nut to crack. However, the postseason is a different animal and he's never faced the pressure of being the guy everyone counts on in a really big spot. In fact, Kershaw struggled in the postseason in 2008 and 2009 when he posted a 5.87 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 15 1/3 innings of work combined. He will certainly pitch better than that, but don't expect to see the same kinds of numbers he posted during the regular season. The Braves send Kris Medlen to the hill. He's had an up and down season, but has looked pretty good over the last month or so. He has great stuff, but it's hard to imagine the potent Dodgers lineup not getting a few runs off of him today. All in all, the total is priced right based on just the pitchers. However, with these two dangerous lineups I expect at least one of them to breakout and maybe cover this total


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