Fresno State vs. Idaho,
10/05/2013 17:00 EDT,
Score: 61 - 14
Point Spread: +28/-110 Idaho
Fresno State is dichotomous spread and straight up team. This means if a team is consistently winning outright but failing to cover or losing outright and covering, we ride the spread streak. This has proven to be a way to isolate over and undervalued teams.
As far as that is concerned, tough to get a more shining example than a team that is 4-0 straight up yet 0-4 against the spread and laying a ton. Fresno State has two one-point wins, a five point win and their only blowout was by 16 at home to Cal Poly SLO, a mediocre team from Big Sky Conference.
More importantly, two weeks ago, they got a huge win to Boise State. As we predicted along the way to our 5-2 college football premium play Saturday, they had a huge letdown in paradise, nearly blowing a big lead to Hawaii.
Now they re-enter the Pacific Time Zone, not only for just their second road game of the year, but one that is back-to-back.
On the other hand it Idaho is off a home game, a big confidence building win over Temple. Idaho is very young with a redshirt freshman at QB and star WR true freshman. Again, young teams play much better at home and are much more inclined to play for a building block game, that is a close loss to a quality foe. We call those covers.
The also have a young secondary, but got some baptism by fire this year, most notably against Mike Leach and Washington State. They are slowly progressing and have Fresno in a tough scheduling spot.
Considering Fresno State four wins are by fewer points than the current spread, we look for Fresno to go 5-0 straight up and 0-5 to the Vegas number.