Middle Tennessee vs. Old Dominion, 02/01/2018 20:00 EDT, Score: 66 - 59

Point Spread: +3½/-106 Middle Tennessee

Sportsbook: PinnacleSports

Result: Win

These are two strong hoops programs, with similar records and defensive records. I know the players and home town crowd will be sky high for this tilt, but if Old Dominion gets the win it won't come easily and I'm betting they fail to cover. Middle Tennessee State is a perfect 8-0 SU/ATS L/8 in this series. Middle Tennessee State has played in hostile environment and recently taken part in NCAA Tourney games and are not easily intimidated. Home court advantage is worth something here, but not enough for me to consider the home chalk as a stable choice, and instead I'm siding with what my own system to system rankings suggest is the better team. ( Middle Tennessee State) This game could easily be decided by one or two possessions  which makes getting points a quality opportunity.
No team in the nation has more wins on the road this season than Middle Tennessee, with a 8-1 record in true road games.

MIDDLE TENN ST is 8-1 ATS  l/9  versus good defensive teams - allowing 64 or less points/game over the last few seasons and overall is 21-9 ATS  L/30 when playing against a team with a winning record  . OLD DOMINION is 8-20 ATS  L/28  in home games after playing 5 consecutive games as favorite.

CBB favorite (OLD DOMINION) - average shooting team (42.5-45%) against an good defensive team (40-42.5%) after 15+ games, after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 55% or higher are 13-37 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 74% for bettors.

Play on Middle Tennessee State to cover

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