Oklahoma City vs. Denver, 02/01/2018 22:30 EDT, Score: 124 - 127

Total: -110/+217½ Under

Sportsbook: Bookmaker

Result: Loss

8* Under Thunder/Nuggets (10:35 ET): Oddsmakers continually anticipate these two teams will play a high-scoring game against one another, yet (at least recently) that hasn't been the case. The last four head to head meetings, two of those taking place this season, have all stayed Under. In fact, the two meetings this season have both seen less than 200 total pts scored. Oklahoma City, despite having three current/former All-Stars, is overrated offensively. They have recently climbed up to 9th in efficiency, but really it has been the defense (4th) that has kept them in the mix. As for Denver, they were the top Over team last year, but 30-21 Under this season. This number is too high and I'm going Under.

Now the Thunder had gone Over in five straight, but that was before losing to Washington on Tuesday, 102-96. The Wizards didn't even have John Wall in the lineup, so that's a bad loss. I had the Under in that game as OKC shot just 37.5% while holding the Wiz to 38.2% from the field. Out on the road, the Thunder's scoring average does dip down to 104.8 points per game. This is also a bad free throw shooting team (68.9% on the road!). They scored only 42 pts in the 2H Tuesday w/ Russell Westbrook scoring only 13 pts for the game. Obviously, Westbrook should score more here, but what about the rest of the team? Remember guard Andre Roberson is now done for the year and it's not like this is a very deep team. The Under is 14-9 when the Thunder face an opponent that has a winning record.

Denver is also off a loss, by two to San Antonio. In fact, their previous three games (1 win, 2 losses) have all been decided by two pts or less (five points total). Tonight's O/U line is higher than any of the previous five games. At one point, Denver went Under in seven consecutive games in January. The Under is 16-10 in their home games w/ 211.8 total ppg scored. They typically play MUCH better defense at home, allowing almost six fewer points per game than they do on the road. Problem is the Nuggets are really banged up right now w/ Paul Milsap, Mason Plumlee and possibly Wilson Chandler all out. That will continue to affect them on the offensive end. 8* Under Thunder/Nuggets

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