*10* Underdog POWER-SHOCKER ~ 17-7 This Week! *INSANE* 82-46-1 Run!
Dallas vs. Cleveland,
04/01/2018 18:00 EDT,
Score: 87 - 98
Point Spread: +11/-110 Dallas
10* Dallas (6:05 ET): The poor Mavs! This team has never been able to catch a break all season. Now if you want to point out that a team that's currently 30 games under .500 simply isn't any good, that's fine. But be aware that Dallas (23-53 SU) has only been outscored by an average of 2.5 points per game this season. That's infinitely superior to the team right above them in the Western Conference standings, Sacramento, who is 24-53 SU, but w/ a per game point differential of -7.4. Of the four "bottom-feeders" in the Western Conference, Dallas is clearly "best" and actually closer in point differential to the 33-42 Lakers than Sacramento, Memphis or Phoenix. Based on point differential, the Mavericks have a win expectancy of 30, making them the biggest underachiever in the league right now when it comes to actual vs. expected wins.
Tonight's opponent, Cleveland, is ironically one of the biggest overachievers in terms of actual and expected games won. LeBron and company have struggled through a lot of injuries, adversity and out-and-out bad defense this year. They are still third in the Eastern Conference mind you, but only one-half game ahead of Philadelphia and one full game ahead of Indiana, both of whom have better YTD point differentials and net efficiency ratings. The Cavs may be 46-30 SU, but w/ a per game point differential of only +0.7, you'd "expect" them to only have 40 wins. Not surprisingly, they have been a disaster at the betting window this year, particularly in the favorite role. When laying points, the three-time defending Eastern Conference champs are a money-burning 16-41 ATS.
The Cavs' defense has generally been hideous all season long and they come into this game ranked 28th in efficiency, ahead of only Sacramento and Phoenix. While they did just beat New Orleans here at home on Friday, 107-102, it was a struggle and they trailed much of the game. The Cavs' home record may be 26-11 SU, but they're only outscoring visiting teams by 1.0 PPG! Kevin Love may be back in the lineup after suffering a concussion, but PG George Hill was injured in the game vs. New Orleans and Kyle Korver remains out as well. Dallas may only have nine road wins all season and they've dropped seven of eight overall. But none of those losses have been by more than 10 points. They lost by one at home to Minnesota on Friday and are a healthy 31-24 ATS as underdogs this season. Cleveland has proven itself totally untrustworthy laying this many points and with a number of big games vs. Eastern Conference opponent looming this week, it will be easy for them to overlook this contest. I suspect we'll get Dallas' best shot and I'll take the points. 10* Dallas