Sunday Night POWER-SLAM ~ *INSANE* 82-46-1 Run! 17-7 Last 6 Days!
Milwaukee vs. Denver,
04/01/2018 20:00 EDT,
Score: 125 - 128
Point Spread: +4/-105 Milwaukee
8* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): Here we have two teams fighting for one of the last playoff spots in their respective conferences. Milwaukee is far safer in the East as they hold the 7th position (one-half game up on idle Miami) and have a five-game cushion over ninth place Detroit w/ only six games left to play. Barring a complete collapse, they are going to make the playoffs. It's just a question of where they finish as it could be anywhere from sixth to eighth. Out West, Denver is in a far more precarious position. They are two games back of the 8th spot. (This despite having the same record as Milwaukee). If the Nuggets ultimately fail to make the playoffs, it can probably be pinned on their terrible road record, which currently stands at 14-25 straight up.
However, tonight Denver is at home. But laying points isn't what I'd do in this spot, especially as it marks a return home after a long seven-game road trip that took them all around the country. They've only had one day off since ending that trip w/ a 126-125 win over Oklahoma City that not only required overtime, but also a season-best 36 pts from Paul Milsap. Most would excuse giving up 125 pts as a product of OT, but the Nuggets are not a good team at the defensive end as they rank 27th in efficiency. (Two of the teams that are worse are Sacramento and Phoenix. The other is Cleveland). Sure, the team has been able to cover some of that w/ the fact they are also sixth in offensive efficiency. But Milwaukee is right there w/ them at the offensive end (7th in efficiency) while also ranking a superior 18th on the defensive end.
The Bucks are playing the fourth and final game of a road trip here. It started w/ a loss to the Clippers, but they've bounced back w/ wins over Golden State and the Lakers. They too needed overtime to win their last game (124-122 over the Lakers), but note they were also up double digits going into the fourth quarter of that game. Of course, the same could be said for Denver against OKC as well. But I simply hate the spot for the Nuggets as teams often struggle in their first home game back after a long road trip. Plus, they're being asked to lay points and still don't have second-leading scorer Gary Harris, Jr. Wilson Chandler also left the OKC game w/ a nose injury and is listed as questionable to play tonight. The Bucks have revenge here for a 134-123 loss last month where the Nuggets hit an incredible 24 of 40 three-point attempts. That will certainly NOT happen this go around. 8* Milwaukee