Nashville vs. Winnipeg, 05/01/2018 20:00 EDT, Score: 4 - 7

Money Line: -145 Winnipeg

Sportsbook: PinnacleSports

Result: Win

9* Winnipeg (8:05 ET): The Jets did what they needed to do in Games 1 & 2 in Nashville and that was earn a split. They took Game 1 in shockingly convincing fashion, 4-1, before dropping Game 2 in double overtime, 5-4. It was ironic that that Jets won the game where they were outshot 48-19, but lost the one where they had a 50-41 edge in shots. Obviously, even w/ a 2OT affair involved, that's a lot of shots to be giving up over a two-game span. But any concerns I might have over that tidbit are quickly quelled by the series shifting back to Winnipeg for Game 3. Here, the Jets have lost only nine times all season, the fewest number of home losses in the entire league. They won all three home games in the first round, averaging four goals per game. That's right on par w/ their season average of 3.9 gpg here at MTS Place, the highest scoring average at home in the entire league. I'll take the Jets in Game 3.

Winnipeg had the highest goal differential in home games during the regular season, outscoring visiting teams by 1.34 goals per game. It's not just their scoring, however. This team also ranked 5th in the league in goals allowed during the regular season, making them the only team to rank in the top five in both goals scored and goals allowed. (Tampa Bay still had a slightly better overall goal differential due to their top-ranked offense). In the three home games in Rd 1 vs. Minnesota, the Jets allowed a total of only three goals. While Nashville was able to win a 5-4 game on Sunday, they should be wary here considering Winnipeg's record this season is 18-9 SU after giving up 4+ goals the previous game. Prior to that loss, the Jets had allowed a total of only ONE goal the previous three games.

Winnipeg did have a three-game losing streak in March, but all three games took place on the road. Other than that, they suffered B2B losses only two other times since Christmas! I'm of the opinion that they are the better team here, so it's very easy to like them w/ the home ice advantage in Game 3. They have won 12 in a row here in Manitoba. Now the last loss here did come against Nashville by a score of 6-5 back on Feb 27th. The Preds are tied w/ TB for the most road wins in the league, but this is arguably the toughest venue in the league to play at and I don't know if they can get the home ice advantage back. Something else to consider is that Nashville has only won once this postseason when scoring fewer than five goals. If their offense isn't clicking again tonight (and I don't think it will be), that's going to be a problem moving forward. 9* Winnipeg

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