Chi White Sox vs. St. Louis,
05/02/2018 13:15 EDT,
Score: 2 - 3
Total: -120/+8½ Over
*3 Star Play Over* The weather calls for temperatures in the low 80's and wind blowing out at about 15 mph during this game. That's very favorable conditions for an over.
Sam Holbrook is the home plate umpire here, and he is one the best over umpires in baseball. Holbrook has seen 54.5% of his games in his career behind the dish go over the total. His strikeout/walk ratio is consistently low compared to the big league average.
Giolito has walked a lot more guys than he has struck out this year. He'll likely have trouble against a Cardinals lineup that is very deep. The White Sox bullpen is one of the worst in baseball as well.
Carlos Martinez is a good pitcher, but he is due for some regression due to his batted ball luck and his strand rate so far this year.
Take the over.