Atlanta vs. NY Mets,
05/03/2018 13:10 EDT,
Score: 11 - 0
Total: -120/+8½ Over
*4 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Braves are first in the majors in weighted on base average against left handed pitching. Jason Vargas is a mediocre lefty, and he is coming off a fairly major injury. Vargas isn't likely to work deep into the game, and the Mets bullpen is worn out right now.
Julio Teheran has good history against the Mets in Citi Field, but Teheran's advanced statistics this year suggest he has been fortunate thus far. His fastball velocity is down more than 2 mph from last year, and his hard hit rate allowed is up quite a bit. The Braves bullpen is a big problem as well.
A large reason for this play is the weather. Temperatures in the upper 80's and winds blowing out at 15-20 mph are tremendous for the over.
In the past 15 years- when the wind is blowing out at least 10 mph at Citi Field- the over is a whopping 116-67 (63.4% overs). If you look at totals of 8.5 or lower only, the over rate goes up to better than 66% during that span.
Two shaky starters and winds howling out on a hot day are a recipe for runs.
Take the over.