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Tampa Bay vs. Boston,
05/04/2018 19:00 EDT,
Score: 4 - 3
Total: -105/+6 Over
10* Over Lightning/Bruins (7:05 ET): After dropping Game 1 at home, Tampa Bay has stormed back to take Games 2 and 3 w/ a pair of four-goal efforts. They now have a chance to take full control of this series w/ another win in Game 4. But winning B2B games in Boston is "easier said than done" and I'm not ready to endorse the Lightning in that regard. However, the trend of high-scoring games in the series should continue tonight. Tampa Bay was the league's top goal scoring team in the regular season and hasn't had much difficulty finding the back of the net in the playoffs either, averaging an impressive 3.6 goals per game. Boston has actually been better offensively in the postseason, averaging 3.7 gpg. Both teams were top four on the power play in the regular season as well. Take the Over in Game 4.
The Bruins' playoff scoring average is a little misleading in the sense that they've generally been "feast or famine." Four times they've scored five or more goals and they've won all of those games. The other six games, they've failed to top three goals and have gone 1-5 SU. They've managed only three goals total the L2 games vs. the Lightning. Part of the problem is that they've been outshot in every game so far in the series, averaging only 24.3 attempts per game. That simply won't get it done against a team like the Lightning. Nor will the kind of goaltending we've seen from Tuukka Rask, who has a .907 save percentage in the postseason. He's actually been better in this series than he was vs. Toronto, but is facing more shots. I do think that Boston can start to get their own number of shot attempts up. After all, three times they posted at least 40 in the series w/ Toronto. As for Rask improving, I'm not so confident.
In Game 3, Tampa Bay scored three times in the opening period, twice in the first five minutes. That held up as they would go onto win 4-1. It's been pretty simple for the Lightning so far in the playoffs. When they score three or more goals (happened six times), they win (6-0). When they don't, they lose (0-2). There's been only one game in the postseason where they didn't have at least 31 shots on goal and that was their lone loss to New Jersey in the previous road. Between the pipes, goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy actually hasn't been as sharp in this series as he was vs. the Devils. Remember, coming in, if Boston did have an edge, it was in goals allowed and penalty killing. The Lightning ranked only 13th in the regular season in goals allowed and were 27th in penalty killing. I see plenty of goals being scored in this one. 10* Over Lightning/Bruins