San Diego vs. LA Dodgers,
07/06/2019 22:10 EDT,
Score: 3 - 1
Total: -111/+8½ Under
*3 Star Play Under* Kenta Maeda is an underrated starter. Maeda has been lights out at home this year. Maeda has allowed a .167 batting average at home, and opponents have an on base percentage of just .226 against him at Dodger Stadium.
The Padres rank 21st in the majors in weighted on base average against right handed pitching. They have done some damage against lefties, but they aren't all that good against right handers.
Maeda's average exit velocity allowed is just 84.8 mph this year, which is superb. Maeda is clearly good at inducing soft contact.
Chris Paddack is a good young pitcher who doesn't walk many batters. Paddack has several plus pitches, and he has a swinging strike rate of 11.2%.
The Padres rank first in the majors in bullpen SIERA this year, and the Dodgers are 10th. In the past month, the Dodgers bullpen ranks 3rd and the Padres rank 6th. These are two solid bullpens.
The under is 17-5 in Maeda's last 22 home starts.
Adam Hamari is behind the plate here, and he is definitely a strike caller.
Take the under.