San Francisco vs. Colorado, 08/03/2019 20:10 EDT, Score: 6 - 5

Money Line: -123 Colorado

Sportsbook: SportsBetting

Result: Loss

10* Colorado (8:10 ET): The Giants got a taste of their own medicine last night, losing a one-run game here in Colorado, 5-4. For the Rockies, it was sweet revenge as they'd previously been swept by San Francisco here at Coors Field, last month. Now why did I call it a "taste of their own medicine" for the Giants, you ask? Well this is a team that has completely overachieved by going a MLB-best 26-11 in one-run games this year (very lucky!), including 8-2 since the All-Star Break. They've also somehow managed to go 7-0 in extra inning games since the Break. Anyone who's been privy to my analysis lately should know which way I'm going Saturday. Take the Rockies.

With Madison Bumgarner on the hill Saturday, most are not going to want to fade the Giants. But I have no hesitation fading a team that has been outscored by 52 runs this season, which is the third worst differential in the entire National League! Thus, it's almost improbable that the team has managed a .500 record to this point. At previous points in the season, there have been several other teams (Tigers, White Sox, Pirates) that I've decided to start fading regularly when their won-loss record and run differential don't "jive." The Giants are just the latest on the list. In terms of actual vs. expected wins, the latter based on run differential, SF is tied (w/ the White Sox) for being the biggest overachiever in all of MLB.

Bumgarner was supposed to start Friday, but got pushed back a day. That definitely helped the Rockies last night as "MadBum" has a 3-0 TSR against them this season. But this is a team that averages 6.5 runs per game at home and two of those three losses came on the road. They counter w/ Jon Gray in this spot & he's got a 7-3 TSR this season at Coors w/ surprisingly good numbers given the nature of the park. Last time out, Gray went eight innings against the Dodgers and allowed just one run on three hits. Just a tremendous performance. He's allowed 3 ER or less in seven of his past eight starts. 10* Colorado

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