*10* SUPER POWER ~ **JAW-DROPPING 23-2-1 RUN Last 7 Days!**

*10* SUPER POWER ~ **JAW-DROPPING 23-2-1 RUN Last 7 Days!**

Philadelphia vs. Arizona, 08/06/2019 21:40 EDT, Score: 4 - 8

Money Line: -127 Arizona

Sportsbook: TopBet

Result: Win

10* Arizona (9:40 ET): When they dealt Zack Greinke to the Astros last week, the conventional wisdom was that the D'backs were throwing in the towel on the 2019 season. I don't know if I agree with that. While a 7-3 loss to the Phillies last night dropped them to a game below .500, they are by no means "out of it" when it comes to a wide-open Wild Card race in the National League. One positive thing they have going for them is a +67 run differential, which tells me they've played MUCH better than their record. In fact, in terms of actual vs. expected wins, they've underachieved the most at -7 games. Look for them to bounce back Tuesday night at home and beat the Phillies.

While Arizona has underachieved this season, Philadelphia ought to feel pretty good about their 59-53 record. They've actually been outscored by 17 runs over the course of the season! But they are where a lot of NL teams would like to be right now and that's tied for a WC spot. Still, there are eight teams in the NL w/ better run differentials, Arizona obviously among them. In fact, the D'backs' YTD run differential ranks third best in the Senior Circuit, trailing only the Dodgers and Cubs! Arizona is 5-2 off its last 7 losses while Philly is 1-4 off its previous five wins.

Last night, the starting pitching matchup was NOT in Arizona's favor, but it looks to be today. Mike Leake is making his D'backs debut here after coming over from Seattle in a trade last week. Leake posted a 2.91 ERA and 0.969 WHIP his L3 starts for the Mariners, which includes a complete game one-hitter. He should pitch better here in the National League and certainly better than Merrill Kelly did yday. Meanwhile, the Phillies got seven very strong innings from Vince Velasquez last night, but Tuesday starter Jake Arrieta hasn't gone that long in a start since Memorial Day. He has a 5.25 ERA and 1.611 WHIP his L7 starts overall. 10* Arizona

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