Atlanta vs. Miami,
08/11/2019 13:10 EDT,
Score: 5 - 4
Total: +105/+9 Over
*4 Star Play on Over* These two bullpens have been absolutely terrible of late. They took turns getting shelled in Saturday night's game. The Braves ended up blowing a big lead and the Marlins picked up the comeback win.
For the year, both of these bullpens rank in the bottom ten in the advanced metrics. In the past 30 days, both of these teams rank in the bottom five. The Marlins are 26th in bullpen FIP in that time and the Braves are 29th.
Mike Foltynewicz has potential, but he hasn't been good so far this year. His last start looks decent on paper giving up 3 runs in 5 and 1/3 in Minnesota, but he stranded tons of runners and had good batted ball luck in that one.
Hector Noesi makes the start for the Marlins here. Noesi has made one start since the end of the 2015 season in the majors. That start didn't go well at all. The Mets scored 5 runs on him in 5 innings pitched. Noesi has never been a good starter, and he has less velocity now and he's up against a great lineup.
The Marlins have allowed 6 runs or more in 7 of their last 11 games. The Marlins offense has shown signs of life in the past couple weeks too.
The over is 5-0 in the Braves last 5. The over is 4-0 in Foltynewicz's last 4 starts. The over is 5-0 in the Marlins last 5 home games. The over is 3-0-1 in the Marlins last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. the NL East. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A combined 24-0 angle.
Take the over.