Miami vs. Pittsburgh, 09/03/2019 19:05 EDT, Score: 5 - 4

Point Spread: -1½/+125 Pittsburgh

Sportsbook: Bodog

Result: Loss

Pitcher with much worse ERA is a very good bet. This is a clear regression to the mean angle to the tune of +256.93. Really bad teams as big favorites are very good bets, but especially on the runline at +23.5 ROI. Ice cold pitchers bounce back as big faves, more on runline at +8.7, though moneyline is +163.67 units. Bad favorites off a win another one great on money and runlines. In series game 1, it is much better on runline at 9.4 ROI. Finally, another combining two angles above has had one losing season.

The truth is, the computer would say 50/50 if the run or moneyline is the better bet. Admittedly my aversion to chalk is the decider on the runline.

« Back