Miami vs. Pittsburgh, 09/03/2019 19:05 EDT, Score: 5 - 4

Money Line: -165 Pittsburgh

Sportsbook: Bookmaker

Result: Loss

7* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): This is a battle of last place teams in the National League, but one is clearly better and also playing (arguably) its best baseball of the season right now. Pittsburgh is coming off a four-game sweep of Colorado, on the road, and now gets to return home to face a Miami team that has easily been the NL's worst team all year long. The Marlins were just swept in their last series (in Washington) running their road losing streak to 15 games. It's a streak that dates all the way back to late July! They've lost 13 of their last 16 games overall. That leads me to this rare endorsement of the Pirates Tuesday night.

Miami has been outscored by 177 runs this year, easily the worst differential in the Senior Circuit as they have scored an NL-low 502 runs themselves. That's more than 100 fewer than every other team. It's not like their pitching has been great either. Over the weekend, they allowed 23 runs in three games to the Nationals and eight home runs. Tonight's starter Sandy Alcantara has not only seen the team lose each of his L3 starts, but the Marlins were shut out in two of the losses. Alcantara is just 4-12 on the year and going back to April the team has dropped 18 of his last 24 starts.

Pittsburgh should take full advantage of Miami's woes as they come off a series in which they scored 37 runs in four games. Yes, that was at Coors Field, but perhaps equally as impressive was the fact they got three quality starts in Denver and allowed just 18 runs. Tuesday starter Mitch Keller gets a break here in facing the weak Miami lineup. Keller has a 2.45 ERA and 1.182 WHIP in his only two previous starts here at PNC Park, so he should bounce back from the rough outing last week in Philadelphia. Meanwhile, I expect the Pirates' hitters to keep up the torrid pace as the last two home games, they went for 23 runs. Overall, the Bucs have won 8 of 10. 7* Pittsburgh

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