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Philadelphia vs. Cincinnati,
09/05/2019 12:35 EDT,
Score: 3 - 4
Total: +100/+9 Over
8* Over Phillies/Reds (12:35 ET): Cincinnati finally broke through in this series, winning last night by a score of 8-5. Thus, they got to avoid the embarrassing situation of potentially being swept in a four-game series at home. Things wrap up w/ Philly early Thursday afternoon and the Reds find themselves back as a favorite on the money line, a role that saw them LOSE each of the first two games. (Ironically, they won as a ML dog yday). I got burned by them earlier in the series, so I hesitate to jump back on, but where I don't hesitate here is with the Over.
The Reds are actually the top Under team in baseball right now. That makes sense as they are just 22nd in runs scored vs. 8th in runs allowed. But they were able to win a high-scoring game yday after scoring only three runs in the first two games combined. They actually surpassed that number in the first two innings of last night's game, jumping out to a 5-0 lead. Expect them to find more success today against Jason Vargas, who has struggled of late - big time. Vargas has a 6.32 ERA and 1.787 WHIP his L3 starts after giving up five runs in just four innings vs. the Mets (former team) his last time out. His resume against the Reds isn't very good as either as his ERA is 6.30 in five career starts.
Now the starter for the Reds on Thursday, Sonny Gray, does have an outstanding recent resume. He's 5-0 his last seven starts w/ a 1.50 ERA and 1.095 WHIP. It's important to note the two games he did not win were both blown saves. Despite the fact that the Reds do have good pitching, the Phillies have averaged six runs per game in this series. When Gray faced them earlier in the year, he allowed three runs in 5 2/3 innings. While Gray has been mostly successful of late, he does still walk a lot of hitters. Two starts ago, he walked five. As Gray knows all too well, the Reds' bullpen has been a problem w/ one of the worst ERA's (5.06) in all of MLB. 8* Over Phillies/Reds