Milwaukee vs. Washington,
10/01/2019 20:08 EDT,
Score: 3 - 4
Money Line: +170 Milwaukee
*3 Star Play on Brewers ML* It's hard to say too much negative about Max Scherzer. There's no doubt he is tremendous. Scherzer still doesn't look like he is 100% healthy though. In the first half of the season he had a 2.30 ERA and allowed a weighted on base average of .255. In the second half of the season, he has an ERA of 4.81 and has allowed a wOBA of .310. Scherzer has allowed 3 runs or more in 5 of his last 8 starts. He hasn't completed 7 innings in any of those starts either. Scherzer doesn't have a great postseason history (3.
Brandon Woodruff has been excellent for the Brewers. Milwaukee is 22-5 in his last 27 starts. Woodruff has elite stuff and if his fastball is working he can shut down any lineup.
The Nationals have the worst bullpen in the National League. While the Nationals might use Patrick Corbin or Stephen Strasburg some, it is likely that some of their normal relievers will need to be used at least some here. The Brewers have a big bullpen edge. Josh Hader will be available for 2 innings here for Milwaukee, and he is the most dominant reliever in the majors.
Washington's chances of winning here are better than 50/50, but this line would indicate that Milwaukee would win less than 39% of the time. I see this as a 44% of 45% chance for Milwaukee. I'll take the value on the underdog. In any one game in baseball anything can happen.