Minnesota vs. NY Yankees, 10/04/2019 19:07 EDT, Score: 4 - 10

Point Spread: +1½/-127 Minnesota

Sportsbook: SportsBetting

Result: Loss

10* Run Line Minnesota (7:07 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where we are backing the Twins +1.5. From how we look at things, there are a couple of reasons why Minnesota would be this large of an underdog for Game 1. None of them have to do w/ anything you will see play out on the field Friday. Well, you'll see the Yankee name on the front of the jerseys and that alone has a lot to do w/ how the marketplace reacts. But such a reaction is often irrational and based merely on "reputation." Speaking of reputation, the Twins don't have a good one in the postseason, especially when matched up w/ the Yankees. From 2004-2010, they lost four LDS to the Yankees and overall have lost 13 consecutive playoff games. But it's 2019 and we have reason to believe this time will be a little different for the Twins.

Let's start w/ their record-setting lineup, which had FIVE players hit at least 30 home runs. No other lineup in baseball history can claim that. Yes, the Yankees also ended up hitting more than 300 HR's total, something no other team had ever done, but the Twins finished w/ ONE more on the year. An interesting tidbit w/ this Twins offense is that it performs better on the road. They averaged 6.1 runs per game on the road, the highest such average in all of MLB. That resulted in them winning 55 regular season games on the road, which was easily the most.

Jose Berrios starts Game 1 for the Twins. He may not have been dominant down the stretch, but he was certainly effective and ended up having a good year. He has 26 strikeouts in his last 26 1/3 IP. The Yankees did not face him in any of the six regular season meetings. The one weak spot w/ this Yankees team is the starting rotation. Though Game 1 starter James Paxton has a perfect 11-0 TSR since the beginning of August, he did leave his last start w/ a sore muscle. We think Paxton could be "due" for a loss here. Interestingly, the Yankees were ML home favorites in the -175 to -250 range 22 times in the regular season and lost 10 of those games. The Twins lost the regular season finale, but are 44-18 off a loss. They do no worse than a one-run loss in Game 1. 10* Run Line Minnesota (+1.5)

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