Minnesota vs. NY Yankees,
10/04/2019 19:07 EDT,
Score: 4 - 10
Total: -120/+8½ Over
*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Twins finished second in the majors in weighted on base average. The New York Yankees finished second in wOBA. These are two elite offenses. The Yankees are much healthier than they have been most of the year, and this is a scary good offense. The Twins have a .361 wOBA against lefties, which is much better than their .342 wOBA against right handed pitching.
Jose Berrios has drastic home/road splits in his career. He has allowed a .287 wOBA at home. He has allowed a .330 wOBA on the road. Berrios has also been much better in the first half of the season (.293 wOBA allowed) than in the second half (.328 wOBA allowed) in his career.
James Paxton is inconsistent. He has a high upside, but he also has some blowup potential.
Manny Gonzalez is the home plate umpire, and he ranks as one of the top five over umpires in my umpire database over the last five years.
With these two strong offenses and a relatively low total, I like the value on the over.
Take the over here.