St. Louis vs. Atlanta, 10/04/2019 16:37 EDT, Score: 0 - 3

Point Spread: +1½/-148 Atlanta

Sportsbook: PinnacleSports

Result: Win

8* Run Line Atlanta (4:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where we are backing Atlanta +1.5. The Braves lost Game 1, 7-6, which is costly as it was a home game. It was their first blown lead of 2+ runs in the eighth inning or later in the postseason since 2005. Now they've got to face Jack Flaherty, who has been as lights out as any pitcher in baseball in the second half. But if there's one "saving grace" for the Braves, it's that Game 2 is still in Atlanta. Obviously, dropping the first two games at home in a five-game series is basically a death knell. But fortunately for Atlanta, Flaherty hasn't been as effective on the road this year. The Cardinals are just 8-9 in his 17 road starts. Look for the Braves to do no worse here than a one-run loss.

The Braves had a 3-1 lead entering the top of the 8th yday and seemed poised to take Game 1. But they allowed the Cardinals to score six times in the final two frames, including four in the 9th. They then put forth their own rally, scoring two in the bottom of the ninth, but it wasn't enough. Of course, if they were to come up one run shy again today, that's okay given how we're playing the game. If you're looking for motivation here, Atlanta has now dropped nine straight postseason games, which is one away from tying the MLB record set by the Cubs. They've also lost nine straight postseason series going back to 2001. Look for an "all out effort" in Game 2 Friday afternoon.

It would be silly to run through Flaherty's exploit as that would only raise apprehension about playing against the Cardinals starter today. However, what about the Braves starter for Game 2, Mike Foltynewicz? He's been every bit as good as Flaherty recently. Over his last three starts, Foltynewicz has a 2.00 ERA and 0.722 WHIP. He's allowed just five ER his L5 starts, the exact same number as Flaherty, though in four fewer IP. But the bottom line is that w/ Atlanta in full desperation mode, getting them +1.5 at home is a value too great to pass up. 8* Run Line Atlanta (+1.5)

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