Minnesota vs. NY Yankees, 10/04/2019 19:07 EDT, Score: 4 - 10

Total: -110/+9 Under

Sportsbook: Bodog

Result: Loss

10* Under Twins/Yankees (7:07 ET): We know these teams can score, but this is the postseason when runs tend to be a bit more scarce. Three of the four games the last two days have stayed Under w/ a late inning barrage between the Cardinals and Braves accounting for the only exception. This LDS does feature the only two teams in MLB history to hit 300+ home runs in a season. Not surprisingly, the public has decided to load up on the Over. Yet interestingly, the O/U line hasn't gone up and in some shops it has actually gone DOWN. Unless the home run ball is even more plentiful than usual, we look for Game 1 of Twins-Yankees to be a suprising Under.

Jose Berrios starts Game 1 for the Twins. He may not have been insanely dominant down the stretch, but he was certainly effective and ended up having a good year. He has 26 strikeouts in his last 26 1/3 IP. He allowed only nine runs in that stretch, five of them coming in one game, so he was very good in the other three. There were only five starts all season where Berrios allowed more than 4 ER. Berrios final start of the regular season saw him give up only two runs in 6 IP, giving him a 4-1 Under mark in the month of September. The Yankees did not see Berrios in any of their six regular season matchups with the Twins.

James Paxton will go for the Yankees in Game 1, looking to extend a team start record of 11-0 that dates back to the start of August. Paxton has picked up the win in 10 of those 11 starts, the exception being his last time out when he had to exit after just one inning due to a sore muscle. He is 3-1 w/ a 2.27 ERA in six career starts vs. Minnesota. Though the Twins lineup did post big numbers during the regular season, a lot of that came at the expense of bad teams, particularly the three within their division (KC, Chicago, Detroit). The Yankees actually average fewer runs per game at home than they do on the road. 10* Under Twins/Yankees

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