Houston vs. Tampa Bay,
10/07/2019 13:05 EDT,
Score: 3 - 10
Total: +100/+7½ Under
ALDS - Best of 5 - Game 3 - HOU leads 2-0
Astros starter Zack Greinke(18-5, 2.93 ERA, 187 SO)
was 8-1 with a 3.02 ERA in 10 starts after being acquired from the D-backs in a July trade, going 18-5 with a 2.93 ERA for the season. He carried a no-hitter into the ninth inning of his final regular-season start on Sept. 25 in Seattle and enters this tilt well rested and with top tier momentum. Meanwhile, TB Rays start Charlie Morton(16-6, 3.05 ERA, 240 SO)remade himself as a pitcher during his 2017-18 tenure with the Astros, and the right-hander has developed a knack for clutch October outings. The 35-year-old allowed an unearned run in five innings in the AL Wild Card Game to become the first pitcher in MLB history to win three winner-take-all postseason games (he also won Game 7 of the 2017 ALCS and World Series with Houston). With two top tier hurlers, and bull pens Im betting on this being a low scoring affair.
Under is 5-0 in Greinkes last 5 road starts.Under is 12-1-3 in Astros last 16 on astroturf.
GREINKE is 10-0 UNDER as a road favorite of -110 or higher this season. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 5.8 rpg scored and 11-0 UNDER as a road favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 6.1 rpg scored. GREINKE is 11-1 UNDER after giving up no earned runs last outing over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 5.1 rpg scored.
Under is 10-1 in Rays last 11 playoff home games.Under is 7-1 in Rays last 8 Divisional Playoff home games.
MORTON is 10-0 UNDER as a home underdog of +125 or more since 1997. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 5.7 rpg scored.
MLB Home teams (TAMPA BAY) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against a very good starter (ERA 3.50 or less) (AL), cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 15 games are 37-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.
Under is 21-4-2 in the last 27 meetings in Tampa Bay.