Stephen Nover's Mountain West Total of the Year
Fresno State vs. Hawaii,
11/03/2019 00:00 EDT,
Score: 41 - 38
Total: -102/+69½ Under
Fresno State coach Jeff Tedford is a quarterback guru. That's something well known about Tedford. What isn't so well known is that Tedford's teams have a strong Under tendency especially on the road where the low side has covered 12 of the last 16 times.
Neither defense here has been very good. Hawaii has an explosive passing attack. That is why the total is so high. But in the last four years the most points scored in this matchup was 56 in 2015. There were 52 points scored last year and just 27 in 2016.
This isn't a vintage Fresno State offense and Jorge Reyna isn't one of Tedford's great QB's. Reyna has a 3-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last four games. The Bulldogs have used five different offensive line combination and 11 players have made their first start for the offense. Lack of focus and execution has hurt Fresno State.
Hawaii lost a bit of its receiving depth when Melquise Stovall was dismissed from the team last week. He was third on the team in TD catches. Fresno State has done a good job of limiting big plays tied with Boise State for fewest pass plays of 20 or more yards allowed.
So I could see a fifth straight game of fewer than 60 points being scored.