***ON FIRE*** Tuesday Night ESPN2 POWER-HOUSE ~ 12-2 L14 NCAAF!
Ball State vs. Western Michigan,
11/05/2019 20:00 EDT,
Score: 31 - 35
Total: -109/+63 Over
8* Over Ball State/Western Michigan (8:00 ET): This is probably a good time to reiterate something I've written previously. The MAC is having a down year. Being that it's November, we're about to get a ton of "weekday MACtion," so for those of you reading me for the first time, it helps to understand my current view of the Conference. Two teams looking to stake their claim as the best in the Western Division meet Tuesday night in Kalamazoo as Western Michigan hosts Ball State. Both teams have been going Under a lot recently (WMU 5 straight times), but they are each capable of putting plenty of points on the board too. Using a strategy that's worked well the last couple weeks, I'm going Over on this particular College Football matchup.
The strategy I've been using w/ CFB totas is fairly straightforward. If a team has gone Over or Under a number of times in a row, go the other way. I realize there's a certain "fallacy" in that mentality, but I like to stick w/ what works. In this case, Western Michigan has gone Under five straight times. To say the Broncos play much better defense here at home would be a mild understatement. They go from giving up 42.0 PPG on the road to just 12.8 at home! But for our purposes, that's "offset" by the fact their scoring rises at home to 44.6 PPG from 25.3 on the road. WMU is simply a much better football team at home. They are 5-0 SU (4-0-1 ATS) at Waldo Stadium and 0-4 SU/ATS on the road!
So the Over is really on Ball State to score more than previous visitors to Kalamazoo. I think they are capable. After all, the Cardinals are averaging 33.0 PPG. Unfortunately, the defense could be in trouble. BSU was gashed for over 300 yds rushing two weeks ago by Ohio. Western Michigan ran for almost 400 yards in a 49-10 win over Bowling Green that same day. A big key for the Western Michigan offense in this stretch run is that John Wassink is healthy. The senior QB has missed all of November the L2 years due to injuries. Something to keep in mind w/ the WMU defensive numbers at home is that they haven't exactly faced a strong slate of opponents. Ball State is as good as any team that's visited here in 2019 and should be able to hang. 8* Over Ball State/Western Michigan