Ball State vs. Western Michigan, 11/05/2019 20:00 EDT, Score: 31 - 35

Point Spread: -6½/-106 Western Michigan

Sportsbook: PinnacleSports

Result: Loss

I'm playing WESTERN MICHIGAN. I see this game going one of two ways. The Broncos winning a close one, avenging a tough 42-41 OT loss at Ball state from last year. OR, the Broncos winning in a blowout, as they did (55-3) here in 2017. Either way, I expect the Broncos to finish on top. Too often, in my opinion, bettors stay away from the money-line in football/basketball. For the most part, I do too. However, in this case, I feel the line should have been higher. Given my calculated likelihood of the Broncos winning SU, the line should have been greater than -300. While they've had some trouble on the road, the Broncos are a perfect 5-0 at home. Averaging nearly 500 yards of offense, they've outscored teams by a 44.6 to 12.8 margin here. Its payback time.

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