Atlanta vs. New Orleans,
11/10/2019 13:00 EDT,
Score: 26 - 9
Point Spread: +13/-105 Atlanta
This looks like a complete mismatch because of the opposite trajectories each of these teams has taken this season. However, it must be noted that New Orleans as a DD home favorite vs division opponents at home is just 3-12 ATS L/15 and 0-6 ATS versus sub .200 opponents. Meanwhile , the Falcons are 5-1 ATS l in their L/6 as double-digit dogs, as well and are 22-3 ATS in this series when they enter with a win percentage of .625 or less.With that said, lets be brave, take the points on what my projections estimate is a mathematical advantage.
NFL Road teams (ATLANTA) - excellent passing team (265 or more PY/G) against a poor passing defense (230-265 PY/G) after 8+ games, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 25-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.
NF LRoad underdogs or pick (ATLANTA) - after 6 or more consecutive losses, in weeks 10 through 13 are 36-13 ATS L/36 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.
Play on the Atlanta Falcons