3-Game NCAAF POWER-SWEEP
South Alabama vs. Texas State,
11/09/2019 15:00 EDT,
Score: 28 - 30
Total: -107/+41½ Over
8* Over South Alabama/Texas State (3:00 ET): It's been awhile since a game involving South Alabama went Over the total. In fact, it's happened just once all year and that was on September 7th vs. a FCS opponent (Jackson State). The Jaguars scored 37 points that day in an easy win. They have not won since and have scored just 59 points in six games! But those of you who follow my O/U plays know that this is the time where I love to "go contrarian." That's going to be a theme for this 3-pack of totals, by the way. In a game w/ a very low number, take the Over.
Speaking of things that haven't happened in a while, how about Texas State covering a game? The Bobcats are 0-5-2 ATS in lined games this year. They are 2-6 SU overall and have been held to 17 pts or less in all six losses. One of their wins was against a FCS school, Nicholls State (won 24-3). The only other win was a high-scoring affair vs. Georgia State, which ended up as a 37-34 final thanks to triple overtime. Considering the dearth of scoring from both sides, I can't say I'm surprised that the number is so low. But this will be the lowest O/U line for any game this season for either team and by a pretty wide margin.
The previous low total for Texas St is 48 points. All other games had a total of 55 pts or higher. For South Alabama, most of their totals have been 50 pts or higher as well. It's telling that Texas State's two highest scoring efforts of the year came when they were favored. They are about a TD favorite this week and the home team has captured all four meetings between these schools. All four of those games saw at least 44 total pts scored. Last year was a 41-31 USA win in Mobile. I know Texas State has injuries at QB/RB, but the backup QB (Tyler Vitt) at least now has a start under his belt. With this being a matchup of two of the worst teams in the country, there is the potential for a shootout. Neither defense can stop the run as they give up 222 and 226 yards per game respectively. 8* Over South Alabama/Texas State