Buffalo vs. Cleveland, 11/10/2019 13:00 EDT, Score: 16 - 19

Point Spread: -2½/-117 Cleveland

Sportsbook: PinnacleSports

Result: Win

8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): There may be some head-scratching over the fact a 2-6 team (Cleveland) is favored over a 6-2 team (Buffalo), but if history is any indication, then the Browns are in good shape here. It's not unprecedented to see a line like this, but it is rare. This is only the 7th time in the L25 seasons that this situation presents itself, that being a team w/ a .250 win percentage or lower being favored over a team w/ a .750 win percentage in Week 6 or later. But when it happens, the favorite is a perfect 6-0 ATS! It's only the third time it's happened in Week 10 or later in the Super Bowl era and the favorite is 2-0 ATS previously. Lay the points.

Buffalo is 6-2 SU and in good position to make the playoffs. But they've certainly taken advantage of a pretty easy schedule. Not only are the Bills the only team besides the Patriots to get to face the Jets & Dolphins twice (2-0 SU so far), they've also gotten to play the Giants, Redskins and Bengals, who are a collective 3-23 SU. Their six wins this year have come against teams that are a combined 9-42 straight up.

Cleveland was the "trendy" team coming into the 2019 season, but we see how that's gone. In retrospect, Freddie Kitchens was probably the wrong hire as HC and Baker Mayfield is regressing. But things may not be as bad for the Browns as you think. They have repeatedly shot themselves in the foot w/ penalties and red zone inefficiency. Just last week, they ran 30 more plays and possessed the ball for 11 more minutes than the Broncos. But six trips in the red zone resulted in only 19 pts and they lost by five. They are now 0-3 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less. They are also 0-3 SU/ATS at home. That has to change. The schedule so far has been tough. While the Bills have gotten to play all those weak teams, the Browns have had to face the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks. This is just the 2nd home game in six weeks. Home teams in games where the total is 41 pts or less have gone 14-6 ATS this season and 107-85-6 ATS the L5 seasons. It's now or never for the Browns. 8* Cleveland

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