*EARLY* UNDERDOG POWER-SHOCKER ~ Chargers over Packers Last Week!
Kansas City vs. Tennessee,
11/10/2019 13:00 EDT,
Score: 32 - 35
Point Spread: +6½/-110 Tennessee
8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): With Patrick Mahomes set to return, this number has skyrocketed in the Chiefs' direction. The thing is, I thought the original number would have been appropriate even w/ Mahomes factored into the equation. HC Andy Reid has struggled in his career vs. the Titans, going 1-7 SU against them, including 0-3 SU/ATS w/ the Chiefs and all of those losses came as a favorite. There was a playoff loss two years ago that really stung. But right now Tennessee is even thinking playoffs. They are a desperate home dog off a tough loss LW at Carolina. Typically, this is a stronger team at home and under Mike Vrabel, they are 5-1 ATS/4-2 as dogs of 4+ pts. Take the points.
There are two "old school" characteristics Tennessee should lean on here in order to pull the upset. One is their defense. The only give up 18.3 PPG, which is 7th best in the league. The other is run the ball effectively, which they should be able to do. I didn't think RB Derrick Henry got the ball enough, especially in the 1H, LW vs. Carolina. Henry averages 18.2 touches per game, which is important to note because RB's who get at least 14 carries against this Chiefs' defense average 109.4 YPG. The Chiefs' defense has allowed 180+ yards rushing in four different games this year. Also, the Titans offense is averaging about a full yard per play more w/ Ryan Tannehill at QB than they were w/ Marcus Mariota.
One has to wonder how Mahomes will play in his first game back from a knee injury. Prior to the injury, the Chiefs' offense had actually been regressing. They'd been held under 26 pts in B2B games, both losses, something that had previous never happened w/ Mahomes as the starter. All but one of KC's last seven games has been decided by one score. They just seem like a real "public side" here caught laying too many points on the road. 8* Tennessee