*10* NFL GAME OF THE WEEK (Power Sports) ~ 8-1 NFL RUN! 3-0 on Thanksgiving!
Cleveland vs. Pittsburgh,
12/01/2019 13:00 EDT,
Score: 13 - 20
Point Spread: +2½/-105 Pittsburgh
10* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): Two weeks ago, in a game that ended w/ a much publicized brawl, the Browns beat the Steelers. It was only their seventh win over Pittsburgh since returning to the league in 1999 and the just the second in 14 tries. Cleveland was a 3-point home favorite for that game. I realize the final score was 21-7, but why are they road favorites here? I suppose a three-game win streak and the fact Pittsburgh is starting Devlin Hodges at QB play a role in that. But, to me, the Browns are back to where they were at the start of the season - overvalued.
The last time Cleveland was favored in Pittsburgh was 30 years ago, Week 1 of the 1989 season and they won 51-0. That was Chuck Noll's final season! So it's been a long time since this situation presented itself. The Browns managed to sweep a three-game homestand to get back to 5-6, but last week's win was against the worst team in the league, Miami. History is simply not on Cleveland's side here. They have not swept a season series from the Steelers since 1988. Each of the last 8 times they've won the 1st meeting, they've gone 0-8 SU/ATS the second go around. They are 0-15 SU their L15 visits to Pittsburgh.
The move from Mason Rudolph to Hodges is probably for the best. There's minimal distraction w/ Rudolph on the sideline. Also, the Steelers' numbers in the passing game actually go up when Hodges is under center. The number of yards per play, per pass attempt and third down conversion rate are all better. Granted it's a small sample size, but I took Hodges in his 1st career start when the Steelers ended up beating the Chargers. QB's making their 1st or 2nd career start have gone 14-4 ATS this season. The Steelers, who are 5-1 SU L6 games, have the better defense here. In addition to missing Myles Garrett, the Browns are going to be w/o LT Greg Robinson and S Damarious Randall. Pittsburgh is only w/o center Pouncey. The Steelers are 9-3 ATS as underdogs L3 seasons. 10* Pittsburgh