Virginia vs. Purdue, 12/04/2019 19:15 EDT, Score: 40 - 69

Point Spread: +1/-108 Purdue

Sportsbook: SportsBetting

Result: Win

8* Purdue (7:15 ET): This is an interesting number as Purdue opened as the favorite, but the line has swung in Virginia's direction and I think there's a good shot the Hoos go off as the favorite at tipoff. Before you go chastising the oddsmakers for how they set the line, note that Purdue's 4-3 SU record is highly misleading as the three games they lost were all close. Most still consider the Boilermakers to be one of the best teams in America, most notably the KenPom rankings, which have them at 13th! I'll call for them to hand Virginia what would only its 4th loss since the start of last season!

Virginia is 7-0 and winning games in its typical fashion. Tony Bennett's defense is allowing a minuscule 40.3 points per game so far, which is impressive even by its yearly standard. They just held Maine to 26 points (for the game!) last week. No one has scored more than 55 and the next highest point total they allowed was 46! But the competition also hasn't exactly been fierce. Note the Cavaliers are actually 0-5 ATS the L5 games because they are only averaging 55.1 PPG themselves.

They may not be as stout as Virginia, but Purdue is giving up just 58.4 PPG. They are a top 10 team in defensive efficiency. This game figures to be a "rock fight." But don't discount the home court advantage. The Boilermakers have won 34 of their last 36 games in West Lafayette. A 63-60 loss over the weekend to Florida State may have dropped them to 1-5 SU L6 games vs. the ACC, but this is a massive revenge game for a five-point loss in LY's Elite 8 where Virginia had to make a last-second 3-pointer to force OT. This year, the Cavaliers are really struggling from behind the new 3-pt line, shooting just 25%! 8* Purdue

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