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UNDERDOG POWER-SHOCKER ~ 10-4 in NFL L4 Sundays!

UNDERDOG POWER-SHOCKER ~ 10-4 in NFL L4 Sundays!

Baltimore vs. Buffalo, 12/08/2019 13:00 EDT, Score: 24 - 17

Point Spread: +6½/-110 Buffalo

Sportsbook: Bodog

Result: Loss

8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): Baltimore has established itself as the best team in the league in many people's eyes, including my own. However, there comes a time when the pointspread eventually catches up w/ you and for the Ravens, it was last week when they failed to cover in a 20-17 win over the 49ers. That snapped a 5-game ATS win streak, but didn't stop oddsmakers from asking them to lay a pretty big number on the road this week to a good Buffalo team. My own power rankings say this spread should be closer to a "pick 'em," so there's plenty of value on the dog.

I took the Bills on Thanksgiving as they upset the Cowboys, 26-15 as a six-point road dog. In my analysis for that game, I talked about how many continue to hold Buffalo's weak scheduled against them. But the bottom line is that this team now has a top 6 point differential (+69). The defense is allowing just 15.7 PPG, fewer than Baltimore and third best in the entire league. Only once this season have the Bills allowed more than 21 pts in a game. This is a team uniquely suited to slow down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' offense. The Bills are 4-1 ATS as underdogs this season, winning three of those games outright.

Baltimore was held to just 283 total yards last week by San Francisco and outgained substantially on a per play basis. While much will be made of the Bills defense's susceptibility to the run, they've only allowed 211 yards rushing (total!) the L3 weeks. Some of that can be attributed to being ahead and forcing the opponent to pass, but even the Cowboys' ground game could only muster 103 yards against them. Having a few extra days to prepare is also huge for this Bills defense. 8* Buffalo


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